楼市大局已定！国内接近一半的家庭，今后不可避免将面对3个难题

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a significant adjustment after over two decades of growth, with property prices expected to continue declining until 2027 [1][3] - Approximately 47% of property owners report that their homes have depreciated below the purchase price, leading to a substantial reduction in national property value [3][4] - The market is facing three main challenges: asset depreciation, high mortgage burdens, and changing housing demands due to an aging population [4][5][7] Group 1: Market Trends - As of 2025, the real estate market has experienced over four consecutive years of decline, with a 13.9% year-on-year decrease in real estate development investment and a 12.9% drop in residential investment [1] - The average property price has decreased by 30% from its peak, significantly impacting the wealth of nearly half of the households in the country [3][4] - The adjustment period has led to a new market structure, with first and second-tier cities experiencing smaller price drops compared to third and fourth-tier cities, where prices have reverted to levels seen a decade ago [1][3] Group 2: Challenges Faced by Households - Asset depreciation is the most immediate issue, with many families experiencing a significant reduction in their wealth, leading to a negative wealth effect that decreases consumer spending [4][5] - High mortgage payments are becoming a long-term burden for many families, with the household debt-to-income ratio reaching 128%, significantly above international warning levels [5][6] - The aging population is creating a mismatch in housing demand, as the needs of older adults differ from those of younger buyers, leading to a decline in suitable housing options [7][8] Group 3: Recommendations for Households - Young first-time buyers are advised to make rational purchasing decisions based on personal financial situations rather than market speculation, with a recommendation to keep total mortgage debt within four to five times their annual income [8][9] - Middle-aged families should focus on diversifying their assets and consider selling properties in less promising markets to invest in more stable options [9][10] - Older adults should reassess their housing needs and consider moving to communities with better facilities for seniors, while also exploring alternative income sources for retirement [11][12] Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the real estate market may stabilize by 2025, with a projected narrowing of price declines in new and second-hand homes [12] - The market is shifting from an investment-driven model to one focused on residential needs, with new policies and housing products emerging to enhance living quality [12] - The overall sentiment suggests a need for families to adjust their expectations regarding property investments and focus on long-term planning [12]