深夜重磅！美联储降息25个基点，美股跳水，黄金跌破3930美元，加密货币近13万人爆仓，解读来了

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 and a cumulative reduction of 150 basis points in this cycle [1][3]. Market Impact - U.S. stock markets are expected to continue rising, with potential volatility before the end of the year; foreign investors anticipate strong structural opportunities in the A-share market, particularly favoring the technology growth sector [6]. - The expectation of rate cuts supports gold prices, although excessive speculation has been noted, suggesting investors should be cautious of potential pullbacks [7]. - The status of U.S. Treasuries as a "risk-free asset" is under scrutiny, with bond yields likely to be suppressed [7]. - The U.S. dollar index faces risks from uncertainties regarding tariffs, government shutdowns, and credit pressures, likely leading to a continued weak trend [7]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the December rate decision is uncertain, with a 65% probability of a rate cut, down from 90% prior to the meeting [9]. - Powell noted that the government shutdown could impact economic activity and the upcoming rate decision, emphasizing the need for caution in the absence of data [9]. Stock Market Performance - Major tech stocks showed strong performance, with NVIDIA rising approximately 3% and surpassing a market cap of $5 trillion; Apple also closed above $4 trillion for the first time [12]. - Meta Platforms saw a significant drop of over 8% in after-hours trading due to disappointing earnings [12]. Bond and Currency Movements - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 3.59%, while the dollar index rose briefly, and the onshore RMB depreciated against the dollar [13]. - Spot gold prices fell below $1,930 per ounce [13]. Emerging Markets - The current rate cut is viewed as a preventive measure, with expectations for a dual bull market in stocks and bonds if economic data supports a soft landing; however, persistent inflation or a sharp decline in the job market could increase asset volatility [17]. - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields is expected to improve global financial market conditions, driving down global financing costs and enhancing the attractiveness of emerging market assets [18].