Nvidia(US:NVDA) 智通财经网·2025-10-29 22:26Core Consensus: $500 Billion Revenue Anchor - The three institutions agree on Nvidia's disclosure of the "Blackwell + Rubin platform" cumulative sales reaching $500 billion, significantly exceeding market consensus [2] - Citigroup estimates this figure implies a potential upside of over $25 billion in data center sales by January 2027, with Nvidia planning to ship 14 million GPUs over the next five quarters, adding to the already shipped 6 million, totaling 20 million GPUs to validate future demand [2] - Goldman Sachs notes this figure is 10% higher than its previous estimate of $453 billion and 12% above the market consensus of $447 billion from Visible Alpha [2] - Bank of America calculates this scale is $50 billion above current industry consensus, equivalent to five times the revenue of the Hopper platform lifecycle (excluding the Chinese market) [2] AI Infrastructure and Quantum Computing Multi-line Expansion - All three institutions highlight Nvidia's deep collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy in supercomputing, with varying focuses [3] - Citigroup details the collaboration covering seven systems, including the Solstice supercomputer at Argonne Laboratory, which is equipped with 100,000 Blackwell GPUs [3] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the deployment of specific laboratory platforms, including the Solstice system and the Rubin platform at Los Alamos Laboratory [3] - Bank of America contrasts Nvidia's collaboration with Oracle on the OCI Zettascale10 system against AMD's recent $1 billion investment in two supercomputing projects, showcasing Nvidia's leading position [3] Valuation and Performance Core Differences - Despite all three institutions giving a "buy" rating, there are notable differences in target prices and valuation logic [5] - Citigroup sets a 12-month target price of $210 based on a projected earnings capability of approximately $7 in 2026, using a 30x P/E ratio, aligning with Nvidia's 35-year historical average [6] - Goldman Sachs also sets a target price of $210, but uses a 35x P/E ratio multiplied by a projected $6 earnings per share in 2026 [6] - Bank of America's target price is significantly higher at $235, using a 37x P/E ratio after excluding cash, reflecting a higher recognition of Nvidia's long-term value [6] Performance Forecast Core Divergence - Citigroup's performance forecast focuses on "demand landing rhythm," emphasizing Nvidia's "14 million GPU shipment plan" as a rare clear signal in the industry [7] - Goldman Sachs projects an EPS of $6.75 in 2026, rising to $8.26 in 2028, attributing growth to three main drivers: OpenAI's Blackwell GPU deployment, sustained government orders, and the market advantages from the Rubin platform launch [7] - Bank of America highlights "revenue-EPS transmission efficiency," estimating that an excess revenue of $50 billion could increase 2026 EPS by approximately $1.15, leading to an expected EPS of $8 for the year [7] Vera Rubin Platform Interpretation Differences - The three institutions have different interpretations of Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform [8] - Citigroup does not analyze it separately but considers it within the overall demand framework of the Rubin platform [8] - Goldman Sachs defines it as the core platform for next-generation supercomputing, emphasizing its technological leadership [8] - Bank of America provides specific performance improvement data, noting a 100-fold increase in token generation efficiency compared to the Blackwell platform [8]