终端需求偏弱 纯苯期价或先跌后涨

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the seasonal decline in pure benzene futures driven by downstream demand, highlighting the fluctuations in production rates and profitability across various downstream products [1][2]. Group 1: Downstream Demand and Production - From July to mid-September, downstream industries typically increase their inventory, leading to a rise in operating rates, which then decline in late September as demand weakens [1]. - In the first nine months of the year, downstream demand for pure benzene grew by 8% year-on-year, with specific products like styrene, caprolactam, and phenol seeing increases of 17.3%, 7.6%, and 2% respectively, while demand for adipic acid and aniline fell by 3.8% and 8.2% [1]. - Styrene production profits were decent from May to July, but high operating rates led to increased supply, causing profits to drop significantly from August onwards, reaching historical lows [1]. Group 2: Operating Rates and Future Projections - The operating rates for styrene, caprolactam, and adipic acid have recently decreased week-on-week, indicating a potential decline in production rates moving forward [1]. - The overall operating rate for pure benzene downstream is expected to decline further due to weak terminal demand and recent maintenance schedules [1]. - The maintenance of pure benzene facilities is projected to decrease from 213,600 tons in October to around 110,000 tons in November and December, suggesting a potential recovery in operating rates after an initial decline [1]. Group 3: Import and Supply Dynamics - China remains the largest consumer and importer of pure benzene globally, with an import dependency of about 20% [2]. - In the first nine months, domestic pure benzene production increased by 5.7%, while imports surged by 40.5%, leading to a total supply growth of 10.4% [2]. - The significant increase in imports is attributed to the near-total shipment of Korean pure benzene to China since last year's fourth quarter, with a notable drop in shipments observed in October [2]. Group 4: Cost Factors and Price Outlook - The long-term outlook for the crude oil market suggests a supply surplus, with recent geopolitical risks easing, which may lead to a decline in crude oil prices and weaken cost support for pure benzene [2]. - Given the anticipated decline in crude oil prices and weak terminal demand, the short-term outlook for pure benzene prices appears bearish, although medium to long-term factors such as high downstream operating rates and decreasing import volumes may support price recovery [2].