Can Nvidia Become a $10 Trillion Stock by 2030?

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has established itself as a leader in the AI sector, achieving a market cap of $4.9 trillion, making it the highest valued stock globally, with potential to reach $10 trillion by 2030 if it can sustain significant growth [2][10]. Company Performance - Nvidia's stock has surged nearly 1,500% over the past five years, averaging a 74% annual increase, driven by the growing recognition of AI opportunities [7]. - In the fiscal third quarter of 2025, Nvidia reported a 56% year-over-year sales increase, with data center sales specifically rising by 73% [5]. - The company is currently rolling out new products, including vertically integrated hardware and software, to enhance its market share and operational efficiency [3]. Market Position - Nvidia controls between 70% and 95% of the GPU market, positioning itself as the dominant player in the generative AI application space [2]. - The company is preparing to launch its next AI architecture, the Vera Rubin line, in 2026, which is expected to handle greater data loads [9]. Future Growth Potential - To reach a $10 trillion market cap by 2030, Nvidia would need to increase its total trailing 12-month sales from $165.2 billion to $333 billion, requiring a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of at least 15% over the next five years [10]. - A more conservative estimate using a 10-year average price-to-sales ratio suggests that sales could reach $538 billion with a CAGR of 27%, which remains feasible given the accelerated growth in AI [11].