“美联储通讯社”：鲍威尔发布会“罕见强硬”凸显美联储“内乱”，12月降息“远非确定”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was accompanied by hawkish signals from Chairman Powell, dampening market expectations for further cuts by year-end [1][5] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4%, the lowest level in three years [1] - Powell refuted the market's belief that a December rate cut was certain, stating that this outlook was "far from guaranteed" [1][5] - Following Powell's comments, the probability of a December rate cut plummeted from 95% to 65%, impacting major indices negatively [1] Group 2: Internal Disagreements - The latest rate decision passed with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against, revealing significant internal divisions within the committee [4] - Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voted against the cut, favoring a hold on rates, while Fed Governor Stephen Miran advocated for a larger cut of 50 basis points [4] - Powell acknowledged a "growing chorus" of officials questioning the need for further easing, indicating a shift in sentiment among decision-makers [4] Group 3: Economic Data Uncertainty - The government shutdown has led to a lack of economic data, increasing uncertainty around future rate decisions [6][7] - Powell noted that missing data could lead to "very high uncertainty" regarding the economic outlook, complicating decision-making [6] - The absence of key labor market indicators has hindered officials' ability to resolve their differences [6] Group 4: Inflation and Employment Dynamics - The core debate within the Fed revolves around balancing inflation control with addressing economic slowdown [9] - Some officials are wary of excessive rate cuts that could overheat the economy and sustain inflation above the 2% target [9] - Recent labor reports indicate a sharp slowdown in job growth, with average monthly additions around 29,000, significantly lower than the previous year's average of 82,000 [9]