西麦食品(002956)：收入快速增长 扣非净利率显著提升 期待新品新渠道放量及新采购季成本红利

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 results with revenue of 547 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51 million, up 21.00% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 49 million, reflecting an impressive growth of 86.30% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance - Gross margin improved to 43.75%, an increase of 0.92 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to ongoing cost benefits [2] - Operating expense ratio decreased to 32.83%, down 2.33 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expense ratio at 27.11% (down 1.85 percentage points), management expense ratio at 5.08% (down 0.87 percentage points), R&D expense ratio at 0.54% (up 0.06 percentage points), and financial expense ratio at 0.10% (up 0.33 percentage points) [2] - Net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 9.25%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit margin was 8.99%, up 3.25 percentage points year-on-year [2] Growth Prospects - New products and channels are expected to drive rapid growth, with the recent launch of the "粉粉" series targeting the health food market receiving positive market feedback [2] - The company is expanding its market presence and channel depth, particularly in the oatmeal sector, which is anticipated to maintain steady growth and increase market share [2] - The new procurement season for oats may lead to lower prices, enhancing profit elasticity for 2026 [2] Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.29 billion, 2.74 billion, and 3.31 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 20.78%, 19.69%, and 20.73% respectively [3] - Expected net profits for the same period are 170 million, 224 million, and 278 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.77%, 31.50%, and 24.38% respectively [3] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 28.6, 21.7, and 17.5 times, maintaining a "recommended" rating [3]