(10%) (4%) 2% 8% 14% 20% 24/10/28 25/1/8 25/3/21 25/6/1 25/8/12 25/10/23 相关研究报告 <<燕京啤酒：盈利能力持续提升，首 次季报分红提升股东回报>>--2025- 10-21 <<百合股份：客户结构变化影响盈利 表现，外延并购高成长标的>>-- 2025-09-26 <<白酒批价承压，关注旺季动销—— 食 品 饮 料 周 报 （ 2025.9.15- 2025.9.21）>>--2025-09-23 证券分析师：郭梦婕 电话： E-MAIL：guomj@tpyzq.com 2025 年 10 月 27 日 行业周报 看好/维持 食品饮料 食品饮料 白酒有望加速出清，关注经营边际改善&高景气成长股——食品 饮料周报（2025.10.20-2025.10.26） ◼ 走势比较 风险提示：政策出台和实施效果不及预期，消费复苏不及预期。 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 行 业 研 究 食品饮料 沪深300 报告摘要 本周食品饮料板块承压，白酒、啤酒、零 ...

食品饮料 2025 年 10 月 26 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《9 月社零增速边际回落，消费修复仍 待巩固—行业点评报告》-2025.10.21 《白酒筑底，加强布局—行业周报》 -2025.10.18 《白酒动销承压分化，饮料零食凸显 韧性—行业周报》-2025.10.12 短期关注三季报业绩，长期关注提振内需政策 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：季报业绩持续分化，建议底部周期加强布局 10 月 20 日-10 月 24 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 0.9%，一级子行业排名第 27，跑 输沪深 300 约 4.2pct，子行业中预加工食品（+1.0%）、肉制品（+0.6%）、其他 酒类（+0.5%）表现相对领先。本周开始进入三季报披露期，从已公布业绩来看， 还是 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Ximai Food (002956) reported a total of 14,334 shareholders as of October 20, 2025 [1]

从资金流向上来看，当日休闲食品板块主力资金净流入7573.52万元，游资资金净流出6824.48万元，散户 资金净流出749.04万元。休闲食品板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，10月21日休闲食品板块较上一交易日上涨1.1%，西麦食品领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3916.33，上涨1.36%。深证成指报收于13077.32，上涨2.06%。休闲食品板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002956 | 西麦食品 | 21.40 | 10.03% | 10.05万 | | 2.08亿 | | 002582 | 好想你 | 9.62 | 4.45% | 21.83万 | | 2.08亿 | | 300972 | 万辰集团 | 198.95 | 3.02% | 2.81万 | | 5.50亿 | | 603719 | 良品铺子 | 12.59 | 1.94% | 3.96万 | 4945.20万 | | | 002719 | 麦趣尔 | 9.97 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the retail sales growth of consumer goods has shown a marginal decline, primarily due to the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the diminishing effects of the "old-for-new" policy. However, with the release of policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting consumption, the macroeconomic environment is expected to improve, leading to a gradual recovery in consumer demand for the food and beverage sector. The white liquor industry is showing signs of bottoming out, with a low likelihood of further demand decline. The report suggests appropriate positioning in the white liquor sector due to its relatively low valuation and stable chip structure. In the mass consumer goods sector, new consumption targets are expected to maintain high growth rates throughout the year, with a focus on new channels, new products, and new markets [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail sales of consumer goods in September 2025 increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4 percentage points from August. The food and beverage sector is anticipated to gradually improve as macroeconomic conditions stabilize [4][5]. Subsector Performance - In September 2025, the retail sales growth for grain and oil products, beverages, and tobacco and alcohol was 6.3%, -0.8%, and 1.6% year-on-year, respectively. The beverage sector showed relatively weak consumption, while the tobacco and alcohol sector saw improved growth due to pre-holiday stocking and a slight relaxation of alcohol bans [4][10][12]. Quarterly Insights - In Q3 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points compared to Q2. The food and beverage sectors experienced varying growth rates, with grain and oil products at 6.7%, beverages at 1.4%, and tobacco and alcohol at 0.8%, indicating a general softening in consumer demand [5][6]. Specific Company Insights - The white liquor sector is nearing a demand bottom, with recent policy relaxations leading to a recovery in consumption. Meanwhile, companies like Ximai Foods are accelerating the launch of new products and channels, which is expected to enhance profit elasticity and certainty in 2026 due to sustained raw material cost advantages [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the performance and valuation of the industry are approaching a double bottom, recommending to strengthen positions during the bottom cycle [3][11] - The food and beverage index increased by 0.9% from October 13 to October 17, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 3.1 percentage points [11][12] - Short-term demand for liquor is nearing a bottom, with business demand under pressure and slight improvements in terminal consumption [3][11] - The report emphasizes the need to observe macroeconomic trends for long-term industry outlook, with expectations of a more gradual recovery slope [3][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report indicates a double bottom in performance and valuation, suggesting to strengthen positions during the bottom cycle [3][11] - The food and beverage index outperformed the market, ranking third among primary sub-industries [11][12] 2. Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 0.9%, with other liquor categories, health products, and liquor showing relative strength [12][13] - Notable individual stock performances included Kuaijishan, Miaokelando, and Guifaxiang leading in gains [12][13] 3. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with full-fat milk auction prices showing a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [17] - Domestic fresh milk prices decreased by 2.9% year-on-year [17] 4. Liquor Industry News - Moutai 1935 saw significant year-on-year sales growth in September, indicating market resilience [40] - The report highlights the importance of observing the pricing changes of Moutai as a key internal factor [3][11] 5. Recommended Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Bairun Shares, with each having specific growth potential and market strategies [4]

公司股东贺州铜麦、公司实际控制人 XIE LILING、JI LI 及其一致行动 人谢世谊和谢玉菱保证向本公司提供的信息真实、准确、完整、没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一 致。 桂林西麦食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 6 月 26 日披露 了《关于公司实际控制人及其一致行动人减持计划的预披露公告》（公告编号： 2025-027）。公司股东贺州铜麦企业管理咨询中心（有限合伙）（以下简称"贺 州铜麦"）、实际控制人 XIE LILING 和 JI LI、一致行动人谢世谊和谢玉菱拟在 该公告披露日起十五个交易日后的三个月内，通过集中竞价的方式，预计分别减 持公司无限售条件流通股 351,065 股、381,000 股、500,000 股、500,000 股、500,000 股，合计减持的股份总数不超过公司股份总数的 1%。 截至本公告披露日，上述股东本次减持计划期限已届满。公司近日收到上述 股东出具的《关于股份减持计划期限届满的告知函》，现将有关情况公告如下： （一）股东减持情况 证券代码：002956 证券简称：西麦食品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates a decline in participation and investor interest in the 2025 Autumn Sugar Exhibition, reflecting a decrease in industry enthusiasm, while the liquor sector's performance during the holiday season aligns with expectations [1][2]. Liquor Industry - The number of participating liquor companies at the Autumn Sugar Exhibition has decreased, with a shift in investment focus towards the consumer end, leading to a cautious attitude among liquor distributors [2]. - The performance of high-end liquor brands remains resilient, with Moutai's price stabilizing around 1800 yuan, which has positively impacted sales during the holiday season [3]. - The overall sales during the holiday season for liquor have declined, but leading brands have shown better performance compared to the industry average, indicating a trend towards increased industry concentration [3]. Food Industry - The beverage sector has shown significant inventory reduction during the holiday period, with leading brands like Nongfu Spring expected to achieve double-digit growth [4]. - The snack sector continues to expand, particularly in discount store formats, although same-store sales have seen a slight decline [4]. - The dairy sector remains under pressure, particularly for ambient liquid milk, with a need for structural improvements [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Wuliangye, as well as emerging brands like Zhenjiu Lidu and Yingjia Gongjiu, which are expected to contribute positively [5][6]. - In the food sector, recommendations include leading snack brands like Ximai Foods and beverage leaders like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, while also highlighting opportunities in the dairy sector with companies like Yili [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Views - The overall sales of liquor during the recent double festival are weak, with a year-on-year decline of 20%-30%, aligning with previous expectations. High-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye performed relatively well, while lower-tier brands faced significant pressure [5] - The price stability of liquor during the double festival is noted, with slight increases observed post-festival. The report suggests monitoring price trends as e-commerce promotions begin [5] - The upcoming Sugar and Wine Conference is expected to provide marginal feedback, with the industry showing signs of bottoming out. The report emphasizes the importance of this event for potential recovery opportunities [6][7] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The food and beverage sector has underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a 0.61% increase compared to the index's 1.80% rise over the past two weeks [14] - The soft drink segment saw the highest increase of 9.98%, while several companies like Zhuangyuan Pasture and Yangyuan Beverage led the gains [14] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report highlights several key companies with their respective earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, recommending stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao for investment [25] - The report provides a detailed table of key companies, their stock prices, and projected earnings for 2024, 2025, and 2026, indicating a bullish outlook for several firms [25] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that recent policy changes may improve macroeconomic expectations, potentially enhancing both valuation and performance in the food and beverage sector. The overall valuation remains low, justifying the "Recommended" rating [8][23] - Specific recommendations include high-end liquor brands and popular consumer goods, indicating a diversified investment strategy across different segments of the food and beverage industry [8][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Recommended" [2][27]. Core Views - The performance of the liquor sector during the recent Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day was in line with market expectations, with an overall sales decline of 20%-30% [24][28]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in sub-industries with high growth potential and lower valuations after recent corrections [27][29]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight decline, with the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index falling by 0.29%, ranking 27th among Shenwan's primary industries [5][27]. - Sub-industries such as dairy (+1.13%), condiments (+0.74%), and meat products (+0.60%) showed positive growth, while other liquor categories saw declines [14][27]. Liquor Industry Insights - The report indicates that high-end liquor brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu performed relatively well despite the overall market downturn [24][28]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on the overall financial performance of the liquor sector as it enters the third-quarter reporting period [28]. Consumer Goods Sector - The soft drink and snack sectors maintain a high level of market vitality, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Yanjinpuzi showing growth potential [29]. - The report highlights that the soft drink category is a necessity for daily outings, suggesting resilience in growth during holiday periods [29]. Key Company Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Wuliangye for their stable performance in the high-end liquor market [28]. - It also recommends attention to regional leaders like Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu for their resilience [28]. Price Fluctuations - Recent price movements for key liquor products include an increase in the price of Feitian Moutai, with the price per bottle rising from 1760 RMB to 1765 RMB for loose bottles and from 1780 RMB to 1795 RMB for packaged bottles [19][21]. - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.04 RMB per kilogram, while other commodity prices such as sugar and soybeans showed slight fluctuations [21][21]. Company Announcements - Dongpeng Beverage is in the process of issuing H-shares and has updated its listing application with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [24][29]. - Guangzhou Restaurant reported a 1.75% increase in mooncake sales compared to the previous year, with total sales reaching 13.98 million boxes [26]. Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with Guizhou Moutai projected to have an EPS of 74.38 RMB in 2025, while Dongpeng Beverage is expected to reach 8.51 RMB [30][31]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate a favorable investment outlook, with Moutai at 19.2 and Dongpeng at 36.6 [30].