美联储“盲飞”降息引发政策风险

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces unprecedented challenges in formulating monetary policy due to a "data vacuum" caused by the U.S. government shutdown, which has halted the release of critical economic data [1][3][11]. Economic Data Impact - The government shutdown has led to a complete halt in data collection and publication by key departments, including the Labor Statistics Bureau and the Commerce Department, affecting important metrics like non-farm employment and retail sales [1][3]. - Goldman Sachs highlights that prolonged shutdowns can damage data quality, as seen in the 2013 shutdown when only 75% of regular price samples for CPI were collected [3]. Inflation and Employment Signals - Recent economic indicators show a consistent signal of policy direction, with the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%, and core CPI also underperforming expectations [4][5]. - The ADP employment report indicates a surprising decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [5]. Federal Reserve's Policy Balancing - Fed Chair Powell emphasizes the difficulty of balancing the need to combat inflation while addressing employment market risks, especially in the context of missing key economic data [7][9]. - Powell signals a potential end to the balance sheet reduction policy, which has seen the Fed's assets decrease from approximately $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion since mid-2022 [7]. Divergence in Policy Perspectives - There is a growing divide within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace and extent of potential rate cuts, with some officials advocating for aggressive cuts due to employment market concerns, while others caution against inflation risks [9][10]. - The internal disagreement is exacerbated by the lack of recent official economic data, leading officials to rely on their interpretations of limited information [10]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market has priced in strong expectations for rate cuts, with a 99.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October, reflecting concerns over economic growth and inflation dynamics [11][12]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped below 4% for the first time since last September, indicating market apprehension about economic slowdown and the anticipated rate cuts [12][14]. - The dollar index remains under pressure due to rate cut expectations, while geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties provide some support, leading to a mixed outlook for the dollar [16].