棕榈油 承压运行

Core Viewpoint - Since October, palm oil prices have been continuously declining due to the accumulation of palm oil inventories and the increase in Argentine soybean oil production [1] Group 1: Palm Oil Production and Inventory - In September, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.84116 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.73% but a year-on-year increase of 1.06% [2] - The export volume for September was 1.42758 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.69% but a year-on-year decrease of 8.48% [2] - As of mid-October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased significantly by 10.77% month-on-month, contradicting market expectations of reduced production [2] - The palm oil inventory in Malaysia reached 2.3610 million tons in September, the highest level in nearly five years [2][10] - Historically, Malaysia is expected to enter a destocking period in November [2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Argentina's implementation of an export tax exemption policy in September led to a rapid decline in oil prices and weakened demand expectations [7] - India imported 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina by the end of September, with expectations of over 450,000 tons in October, while palm oil imports are projected to drop to 600,000 tons [7] - From January to September 2025, India imported 5.6186 million tons of palm oil, a decrease of 12.29% year-on-year, while soybean oil imports increased by 27.51% to 3.5657 million tons [7] - Current edible oil stocks in Indian ports are high, indicating limited future replenishment demand [7] - The domestic soybean-palm oil price difference in China was -928 yuan/ton on October 24, the lowest level for the same period in five years, indicating poor price competitiveness for palm oil [9] Group 3: Global Market Trends - The EU's environmental policies have also suppressed palm oil demand, contributing to a decrease in demand from traditional consumer countries while increasing demand from regions like Africa and the Americas [11] - Overall, the global palm oil market is characterized by declining total demand [11] Group 4: Future Outlook - In the short term, palm oil futures prices are expected to remain under pressure due to inventory accumulation, increased Argentine soybean oil production, and weak demand [12] - In the medium term, there is potential for palm oil futures prices to rise due to tightening supply and the onset of the destocking period in Malaysia [12]