纽约联储前官员：过早降息风险在于重燃通胀｜直击华尔街

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4% on October 29, following a similar decision in September, indicating an attempt to alleviate pressures in a weakening labor market [1] - The Fed will officially halt the reduction of its balance sheet starting December 1, marking a significant turning point in its liquidity management policy and the end of the quantitative tightening phase initiated in 2022 [1] - Richard Roberts, a former official at the New York Fed, expressed concerns that premature rate cuts could reignite inflationary pressures, which may necessitate more aggressive tightening in the future [1][2] Group 2 - The labor market remains tight with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, and the upcoming large-scale fiscal stimulus known as the "Big and Beautiful Act" could further complicate the inflation situation [2] - Roberts warned that a rate cut could signal that the Fed prioritizes short-term growth over long-term inflation expectations, potentially leading to accelerated inflation and necessitating more stringent future policies [2] - The Fed's current stance suggests that inflation is expected to return to normal levels, but there are concerns that this outlook mirrors previous misjudgments about temporary inflation during the pandemic [3] Group 3 - There are worries that even a modest 25 basis point cut could overly stimulate the economy given strong potential demand, upcoming fiscal spending, and robust employment and consumption data [3][4] - Roberts emphasized that rate cuts should only be considered in the event of clear and sustained economic deterioration, advocating against premature actions [4] - The reliability of private sector indicators has increased due to limited official data from the government shutdown, but these indicators have notable limitations and should be interpreted cautiously [5] Group 4 - Private sector data, while valuable for real-time signals, can be volatile and subject to revisions, necessitating careful interpretation, especially in policy-making contexts [5] - The Fed can leverage the "Beige Book," which provides timely feedback from regional Fed banks based on interactions with businesses and market participants, to gain a comprehensive understanding of current economic conditions [6]