纽约联储前官员：过早降息风险在于重燃通胀

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4% on October 29, 2023, indicating an attempt to alleviate pressures from a weakening labor market [1] - The Fed will officially stop reducing its balance sheet starting December 1, marking a significant turning point in liquidity management and the end of the quantitative tightening phase initiated in 2022 [1] - Richard Roberts, a former New York Fed official, expressed concerns that premature rate cuts could reignite inflation pressures, potentially necessitating more aggressive tightening in the future [1][2] Group 2 - The labor market remains tight with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, and the upcoming large-scale fiscal stimulus known as the "Big and Beautiful Act" could further complicate inflation control efforts [2] - Roberts warned that a rate cut could signal that the Fed prioritizes short-term growth over long-term inflation expectations, which could lead to accelerated inflation and necessitate more drastic future measures [2][3] - The Fed's current stance suggests that inflation is returning to normal levels, with the exception of tariffs from the Trump administration, which are viewed as a temporary shock that will dissipate [3] Group 3 - Concerns were raised about the adequacy of a 25 basis point cut given strong potential demand, upcoming fiscal spending, and robust employment and consumption data, suggesting that even a modest cut could be overly stimulative [3] - The reliability of private sector indicators has become crucial for monetary policy formulation, especially in light of limited official data due to the government shutdown [4] - While private data sources provide valuable real-time signals, they have limitations and should be interpreted cautiously, particularly when formulating policies that heavily rely on data accuracy [4][5]