SERES(SH:601127) Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-10-30 02:15Core Viewpoint - The company, Seres, is set to launch a global offering on October 27, with a pricing date of November 3 and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 5. The offering price is capped at HKD 131.50 per share, with a base issuance of approximately 100 million shares, potentially raising up to HKD 174.3 billion if the overallotment option is fully exercised. This IPO could become the third largest in Hong Kong this year and the largest for a complete vehicle manufacturer since 2022. However, the offering features an unusual discount of over 26%, a lack of participation from foreign long-term funds, and a reliance on government and industrial capital, indicating deeper risks related to valuation and performance, particularly the dependency on Huawei [1][5][13]. Pricing Strategy - The pricing strategy for Seres' IPO shows a stark contrast to similar large A to H projects this year, with a discount of 26.9% compared to the A-share closing price of CNY 163.99. This discount is significantly higher than the typical range for comparable projects, where discounts are generally kept below 20% [2][4]. Investor Composition - The IPO attracted 22 cornerstone investors, raising a total of USD 830 million, which accounts for 48.7% of the base issuance. However, the investor composition is heavily skewed towards government and industrial capital, with foreign long-term funds largely absent, raising concerns about the long-term value perception of the company [5][6]. Performance and Valuation Concerns - Seres' sales data indicates a weakening growth trend, with September 2025 sales of 48,000 vehicles showing an 8.33% year-on-year increase, but a cumulative decline of 7.79% for the first nine months. The company's reliance on Huawei is diminishing, as evidenced by its ranking among Huawei's electric vehicle models, where it faces increasing competition from other manufacturers [7][9][12]. Financial Metrics - As of the current valuation, Seres has a market capitalization of HKD 306.9 billion, with projected P/E ratios for 2024, TTM, and 2025 at 47.2x, 38.6x, and 27.9x respectively. These figures are significantly higher than the average P/E ratios of traditional automakers in Hong Kong, which hover around 14.9x to 22x, indicating a potential valuation bubble lacking solid fundamental support [10][11][12]. Dependency on Huawei - The valuation premium associated with Seres is largely attributed to its partnership with Huawei. Prior to this collaboration, Seres had a market value of only CNY 10 billion, which skyrocketed to over CNY 250 billion post-collaboration. However, as Huawei diversifies its partnerships with other manufacturers, Seres risks losing its competitive edge and growth momentum, raising concerns about its long-term sustainability [13].