疾风知劲草——通信ETF（515880）点评

Market Performance - The market experienced a rebound on October 29, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising above 4000 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 108.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.93%. The Communication ETF (515880) also saw a rise of 1.89% [1][2]. Short-term Outlook - Positive signals in China-U.S. relations have alleviated significant valuation pressures. Recent economic discussions between Chinese and U.S. officials in Kuala Lumpur focused on key trade issues, leading to a basic consensus on resolving mutual concerns [2]. - A busy week for earnings reports is expected, with major companies in sectors like optical modules, PCB, and ODM yet to release their Q3 financial results. There is a strong possibility of growth in the performance of leading companies in these sectors [2]. Company Insights - NVIDIA's CEO announced at the GTC conference that the company expects to ship 20 million units of the Blackwell-Rubin architecture between 2025 and 2026, projecting approximately $500 billion in data center revenue visibility. This suggests NVIDIA could achieve over $300 billion in revenue by 2026, significantly exceeding current market expectations [3]. - Google reported a Q3 revenue of $102.35 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase, with net profit rising by 33% to $34.98 billion. Google Cloud revenue grew by 35% to $15.16 billion, surpassing market expectations [5][12]. - Microsoft’s Q1 FY26 revenue reached $77.7 billion, a 4% year-over-year increase, with cloud revenue growing by 28% to $30.9 billion. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $34.9 billion, exceeding market expectations [12][13]. - Meta's Q3 revenue was $51.24 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, slightly above market expectations. The company anticipates significant capital expenditure increases in 2026 [15]. Long-term Outlook - The AI infrastructure investment model is shifting from self-funded to financed investments, with an expected increase in hardware shipments. OpenAI's recent activities indicate a growing demand for computing power, which may lead to accelerated AI infrastructure development [18]. - The international macroeconomic environment is improving, suggesting further liquidity enhancements. AI is expected to remain a core driver of market growth, with opportunities in the equity market likely to persist in the medium to long term [18][19]. Product Characteristics - The Communication ETF has a core content of 21%, effectively representing the fundamentals of overseas products. As of October 28, optical modules accounted for 52% of the ETF, while servers made up 22%, totaling 81% when combined with fiber and copper connections [20][21]. - The Communication ETF's underlying index has shown a year-to-date increase of 117.17%, leading its peers in performance [22][23].