官方定调！十五五规划出炉，A股四大板块或将迎结构性爆发

Core Insights - The recent Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has approved the main goals for economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), marking a significant transition from the 14th to the 15th Five-Year Plan [1] Major Policy Signals - Emphasis on high-quality development, focusing on "qualitative effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth" [2] - Promotion of technological self-reliance and the establishment of a modern industrial system [2] - Expansion of domestic demand and promotion of common prosperity with a people-centered development approach [2] - Commitment to green and low-carbon transformation, aiming to build a "Beautiful China" [2] - Balance between development and security, advancing supply-side structural reforms, and enhancing the modernization of industrial and supply chains [2] Short-term Impact on A-shares - The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to create structural opportunities rather than a broad market rally in the short term (next 6-12 months) [3] - The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors are likely to benefit first, with strong policy expectations for "new quality productivity" sectors such as semiconductors, industrial software, smart equipment, robotics, AI applications, and high-end manufacturing [3] - The AI industry chain is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of over 30% in the next three years, with significant demand in AI servers and optical modules [3] Sector Observations - Technology/Advanced Manufacturing: Companies with self-innovation capabilities in smart equipment, industrial software, and semiconductor equipment are recommended for observation [4] - Domestic Consumption/Service Upgrade: The focus on people-centered development and service industry expansion suggests potential in consumption upgrades, health care, tourism, education, and quality home goods [5] - Green New Energy/Environmental Protection: The green transition is a key component of the 15th Five-Year Plan, with ongoing support for new energy, energy storage, hydrogen energy, and environmental protection [7] - Reform Beneficiary Sectors: Traditional industries that can enhance efficiency and profitability through reforms are worth monitoring [9] Recommended Sectors and Observed Stocks - Technology/Advanced Manufacturing: Companies like Zhongwei Company, Dazhu Laser, and Sany Heavy Industry are highlighted due to their alignment with technological self-reliance and policy support [11] - Consumption/Service: Stocks such as Jiu Gui Jiu, Aier Eye Hospital, and Sanfu Outdoor are noted for their potential in consumption upgrades and service expansion [11] - Green New Energy/Environmental Protection: Companies like CATL and Sungrow Power are recognized for their roles in the green transition and ongoing policy support [11] - Reform/Traditional Industries: China CNR, Baosteel, and China Shipbuilding Industry are identified as beneficiaries of state-owned enterprise reforms and structural improvements [12]