【行情分析·石脑油】10月价格刷年内新低 下月或仍有下跌空间

Core Viewpoint - In October, naphtha prices hit a new low for the year due to pressures from crude oil prices and supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of further declines in November, albeit at a reduced rate [1][2]. Price Trends - By the end of October, straight-run naphtha prices fell to approximately 6,550 yuan/ton, and hydrogenated naphtha prices dropped to around 6,750 yuan/ton, marking a decline of 350 yuan/ton or about 5% for the month [1]. - The downward trend in prices is expected to continue into November, with anticipated declines of 50-100 yuan/ton [4]. Demand Factors - Demand for straight-run naphtha has been weak due to maintenance at some refineries and a slowdown in procurement as market participants adopt a bearish outlook [2][3]. - The gasoline market has shown low transaction activity, further contributing to the weak demand for hydrogenated naphtha [2]. Supply Factors - Naphtha supply from refineries remains stable, but the impact on prices is limited [2]. - Some refineries in North China plan maintenance in November, which may reduce external sales of naphtha, providing slight support to prices [2]. Market Outlook - The crude oil market is expected to remain under pressure, with WTI averaging around $58 per barrel, which will continue to negatively impact naphtha prices [2]. - Despite the bearish outlook, the extent of price declines is expected to be limited due to potential supply tightening from refinery maintenance [2][3].