专家预测90%的预制菜企业将消失，谁会是幸存者？

Core Viewpoint - The pre-prepared food industry is facing significant challenges, with predictions that only about 5,000 out of the current 68,000 companies will survive in the next five years, indicating a potential 90% failure rate [1][18]. Industry Overview - The pre-prepared food sector is experiencing a downturn, with major companies reporting substantial profit declines. For instance, the first listed company in this sector, Weizhi Xiang, saw a net profit drop of 24.46% year-on-year, while Huifa Foods' losses increased from 16.43 million to 29.99 million [3][4]. - The demand for pre-prepared food is shrinking, particularly in the B2B market, which constitutes about 80% of the consumption, primarily driven by takeout restaurants [5][16]. Market Dynamics - The rise of "ghost kitchens" and the shift towards more transparent dining experiences are reshaping the market. The introduction of initiatives like Meituan's "brand satellite store" and JD's "Qixian Xiaochu" indicates a move towards fresh, made-to-order meals, which could further diminish the demand for pre-prepared meals [8][11]. - Regulatory measures are tightening around "ghost kitchens," which may further reduce the market for low-quality pre-prepared food products [11][16]. Consumer Sentiment - There is a growing distrust among consumers towards pre-prepared meals, with many expressing a preference for freshly cooked options. This sentiment is reflected in the increasing number of restaurants promoting "live cooking" experiences [16][15]. Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges, there is still potential for growth in the pre-prepared food market, particularly as consumer lifestyles evolve. The penetration rates of pre-prepared meals in countries like the U.S. and Japan exceed 60%, suggesting that similar trends could emerge in China [19][31]. - The increasing chain restaurant model in China, with a projected rise in chain restaurant rates from 15% in 2020 to 25% by 2025, may create opportunities for high-quality pre-prepared food products [28][31]. Conclusion - The pre-prepared food industry is expected to undergo significant restructuring, with a reduction in the number of players. However, there remains a possibility for some companies to thrive by focusing on quality and transparency, ultimately reshaping the industry's value proposition [33].