Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-30 02:50Core Viewpoint - Jianyin International has downgraded the profit forecasts for Qingdao Beer (600600) for the next two years by 3% and 4% respectively, reflecting a slowdown in average selling price growth and a more cautious sales outlook [1] Financial Projections - The valuation benchmark has been shifted to 2026, with the EV/EBITDA multiple reduced from 12x to 10x to account for sluggish consumption and a slower premiumization process compared to peers [1] - The target price for the group's H-shares has been lowered by 7%, from HKD 55.6 to HKD 51.5, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Performance Analysis - In Q3, Qingdao Beer reported a net profit increase of 1.6% year-on-year to RMB 1.37 billion, but this fell short of both the firm's and market expectations due to poor revenue performance [1] - Despite pre-Spring Festival inventory buildup and consumption stimulus policies providing some support, the firm anticipates that the consumption market will remain weak through Q4 and into early 2026 [1] Market Dynamics - The normalization of industry promotional activities limits the risks to the group's sales growth and market share [1] - Revenue growth is projected to accelerate to 2.6% by 2026, driven by a 1.7% increase in sales volume and a 1% rise in average selling price [1] Margin Expectations - With the low-cost structure of Dama and ongoing product mix improvements, the firm assumes that the gross margin will increase by 0.2 percentage points to 42% by 2026, and the EBIT margin will rise by 0.3 percentage points to 15.8% [1] Strategic Decisions - The group has terminated its plan to acquire Shandong Jimo Yellow Wine as of October 26, eliminating uncertainties related to the transaction's impact on operations [1]