Core Insights - The adjustment of the preset interest rate since September has caused a short-term impact on sales, with significant declines in the premium growth rates of New China Life and Taikang Life in September [1] - The impact is expected to gradually ease in Q4 2023, with a potential for small single-digit growth in Q1 2026 due to a low base effect [1] - The dynamic adjustment mechanism of preset interest rates allows for more flexible regulation of the rigid cost components of insurance policies, which may alleviate the cost pressure on existing policies [1] - The potential pressure from "interest spread loss" in the life insurance industry may have gradually converged, and the PEV valuation of life insurance targets may see a recovery [1] Industry Developments - On October 29, the China Insurance Industry Association held a meeting regarding the evaluation interest rates for life insurance reserves, where experts indicated that the current research value for preset interest rates for ordinary life insurance products is 1.90% [2] - The preset interest rate cap for the life insurance industry will be lowered from 2.5% to 2% starting September 1, 2025, with the current research value at 1.9%, which is 15 basis points away from the adjustment threshold [3] - The preset interest rate research value has decreased by 9 basis points compared to the previous quarter, and while interest rates are currently fluctuating at low levels with a short-term upward trend, they remain in a downward trajectory based on the 250/750-day averages [3] - The 10-year government bond yield's 250-day average is currently at 1.77%, and it is anticipated that the preset interest rate research value will likely not fall below 1.75% in the next quarter, maintaining the current cap of 2% for the next six months [3]
华创证券：25Q3预定利率研究值为1.9% 预定利率上限预计短期内维持当前水平
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-30 03:01