美联储降息持续利好人民币汇率 9月结售汇顺差已创新高

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4%, marking the second rate cut of the year, which has contributed to a weaker US dollar and a stronger Chinese yuan [1] - The yuan's midpoint rate has appreciated approximately 1000 basis points this year, surpassing the important 7.1 level in October, leading to increased demand for yuan settlement [1][3] - In September 2025, the settlement surplus reached $51 billion, significantly higher than the $14.6 billion surplus in August, marking the highest level since January 2021 [2][3] Group 2 - The increase in the settlement surplus is attributed to two main factors: the strong performance of the yuan and a notable acceleration in export growth, which has boosted settlement demand [1][4] - The data indicates that in September, banks' customer settlement increased to $25.8 billion, a rise of $54.8 billion month-on-month, while customer sales rose to $20.6 billion, an increase of $17.5 billion [4] - The overall settlement surplus reflects a growing preference for yuan assets among market participants, driven by the favorable valuation and growth potential of Chinese assets [1][2] Group 3 - In September, China's total import and export value reached $566.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with a trade surplus of $90.45 billion providing crucial support for the settlement surplus [6] - The divergence between foreign exchange receipts and payments indicates a shift, with a recorded deficit of 22 billion yuan in September, influenced by seasonal factors and increased foreign investment [7][8] - The increase in domestic outward investment, which reached 492.13 billion yuan in September, has contributed to the deficit in foreign exchange payments, despite a growing surplus in trade [8][9]