美联储降息持续利好人民币汇率，9月结售汇顺差已创新高

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4% has contributed to a weaker US dollar, which, along with China's stable exchange rate policy and strong domestic equity market performance, has led to a strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate and Capital Flows - The RMB's midpoint rate has increased by approximately 1000 basis points this year, surpassing the important threshold of 7.1 [1] - In September 2025, the monthly settlement surplus reached $51 billion, significantly higher than the $14.6 billion surplus in August, marking the highest level since January 2021 [2][3] - The increase in settlement surplus reflects a growing preference for RMB assets among market participants, driven by the Fed's rate cuts and the attractiveness of Chinese assets [1][2] Group 2: Trade and Settlement Data - In September 2025, banks settled 188.09 billion RMB and sold 151.83 billion RMB, with a cumulative settlement of 13.27 trillion RMB and sales of 12.83 trillion RMB from January to September [2] - The trade surplus in September was $90.45 billion, providing significant support for the settlement surplus [5] - The increase in settlement surplus is attributed to both the stability of the RMB and the acceleration of export growth, which has boosted settlement demand [3][5] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - Foreign capital inflows into China's capital markets have increased, reflecting a positive outlook on RMB assets, with net inflows of $93.1 billion in the first three quarters of the year [1] - The rise in settlement surplus indicates that market participants are optimistic about the RMB's future performance, suggesting a balanced supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [6] - The increase in domestic outward investment has led to a reversal in the foreign payment balance, with a deficit of 22 billion RMB in September, indicating active cross-border capital flows [7][8]