美日稀土协议难破中国“封锁”

Core Points - The signing of the "Rare Earth Supply" framework agreement between the US and Japan aims to ensure the supply of critical minerals and rare earths, but faces significant challenges and is unlikely to disrupt China's dominant position in the rare earth sector in the short term [2][15] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement was signed during a meeting between US President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Kishi, marking their first face-to-face encounter and emphasizing the unity of the US-Japan alliance [2] - The framework includes plans for both countries to mobilize public and private sectors for investment in mining and processing of critical minerals and rare earths, with a commitment to identify projects to address supply chain gaps [4] - A timeline is set for actions to support selected projects within six months of signing, and a bilateral ministerial meeting on mining and investment is planned within 180 days [4] Group 2: China's Dominance - China holds a dominant position in the global rare earth industry, with approximately 44 million tons of reserves, accounting for 40% of the global total, and producing 270,000 tons, which is 70% of the world's output [8] - Over 90% of rare earth refining is controlled by China, and it produces 89% of the global supply of neodymium-iron-boron magnets, crucial for various high-tech applications [8] - Recent Chinese regulations on rare earth exports further solidify its control, requiring export licenses for products containing over 0.1% Chinese rare earth components [6] Group 3: Challenges in Implementation - The agreement's content is vague, lacking specific projects or cooperation forms, and is perceived more as a political gesture rather than a concrete plan [4][15] - Japan possesses strong resource refining technology but is still far behind in rare earth extraction, with deep-sea rare earth mining remaining in experimental stages [11] - The US has struggled to revitalize its domestic rare earth industry, with plans to establish a complete supply chain by 2027, but expected production will still fall short of meeting domestic demand [13]