金价再启历史时刻！要做好心理准备，下月金价或将重现2011年历史

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing significant volatility, with recent declines raising concerns about the end of the gold bull market, as analysts draw parallels to historical price movements [1][3][5]. Price Movements - On October 28, gold prices fell below $3,900, marking a decline of over 10% from the high of $4,381 on October 20 [1]. - The current price drop mirrors the historical patterns observed in 2011, where gold prices also experienced sharp declines after reaching significant highs [5][19]. Technical Analysis - Technical analyst Torsten warns that gold prices may continue to decline to around $3,500 in November, citing historical trends where gold prices have retreated significantly after breaking the 200-week moving average [3][17]. - Historical data indicates that gold has never experienced ten consecutive weeks of price increases, suggesting a potential for a downturn after the recent nine-week rally [5][16]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is showing signs of panic, similar to the reactions seen in 2011 when gold prices fell below key psychological levels [6][11]. - In 2025, the Gold Cycle Indicator reached an extreme level, indicating market overbuying, which often precedes a market correction [12][14]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, including U.S.-China trade conflicts and instability in the Middle East, are contributing to the volatility in gold prices, similar to the conditions in 2011 [11][9]. - The potential easing of geopolitical tensions, such as the recent ceasefire agreements, could temporarily reduce the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [12][11]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks are continuing to increase their gold reserves, with China adding 28.04 tons in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a long-term trend of "de-dollarization" [16]. - The ongoing demand from central banks is expected to provide a structural support for gold prices, contrasting with the more volatile retail investor sentiment [16][14]. Future Projections - Analysts predict that if historical patterns repeat, gold prices could drop to around $3,500 by the end of November, reflecting a potential 20% decline from recent highs [17][19]. - Support levels for gold prices are identified at $4,180-$4,150, with a critical support level at $4,100, which aligns with historical technical significance [19].