【首席观察】美联储如期降息，市场却反向波动，怎么回事？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%, and will end quantitative tightening on December 1 [3] - There is internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts, with some members advocating for a more aggressive approach [3][4] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones down 0.16% and the Nasdaq slightly up by 0.55%, indicating mixed market reactions [3] Group 2 - Market expectations for a December rate cut have significantly decreased, with implied probabilities dropping from over 90% to between 65%-71% [5] - The market's initial optimism regarding liquidity and future growth was quickly dampened by Powell's comments on the uncertainty of future rate cuts [6][10] - The decision-making process was complicated by the absence of key economic data due to government shutdowns, leading to a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve [7][8] Group 3 - The global liquidity landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with central banks increasing their gold reserves from 24% to 30% [13] - The shift in reserve assets is driven by diminishing confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds, which are perceived as less attractive due to high inflation and geopolitical factors [14] - The international monetary system is experiencing changes, including a decline in dollar credibility and the rise of alternative assets like gold [15][16]