如何影响股市、金价、人民币？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, while signaling a cautious approach towards future rate cuts due to economic uncertainties [2][4][6]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Current U.S. economic activity is experiencing moderate growth, with a slight increase in unemployment and inflation levels remaining high despite a decrease from earlier in the year [4][6]. - The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, lower than the expected 3.1%, indicating a mixed inflation outlook [6][9]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The decision to cut rates was supported by 10 out of 12 voting members, indicating some internal disagreement on the extent of the cut [6]. - Future rate adjustments will depend on the latest economic data and the balance of various risks, with the Fed prepared to adjust policies if new risks emerge [4][9]. Group 3: Impact of Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [9][14]. - The Congressional Budget Office warned that the shutdown could reduce U.S. GDP growth by 1 to 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter, leading to significant economic losses [9]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The Fed's rate cut is expected to weaken the dollar, potentially leading to a relative appreciation of the Chinese yuan and affecting global capital flows [16][18]. - The cut is likely to lower U.S. Treasury yields, making U.S. dollar-denominated assets less attractive, which could increase the appeal of Chinese assets [16]. Group 5: Future Projections - Analysts predict that the Fed may continue to lower rates until early 2026, but concerns about inflation may limit the extent of future cuts [13][14]. - The Fed's decision to stop balance sheet reduction on December 1 is seen as a move to ease liquidity in the market [11][12].