摩通资管：美国政府停摆或影响美联储决定 料明年上半年减息一次

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates is influenced by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has hindered access to key economic data, including non-farm payroll figures [1] - If the government shutdown does not cause further disruptions, the Federal Reserve will continue to receive employment and inflation reports, which could impact future rate decisions [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Improvements in employment conditions or a surge in inflation may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates, although the possibility of a rate cut in December remains [1] - The more hawkish tone from the recent FOMC meeting suggests that there may only be one opportunity for a rate cut in the first half of next year [1]