忘掉黄金吧，现在是铝的高光时刻

Core Insights - Aluminum is gaining market attention, with prices nearing $2,900 per ton, marking a three-year high and within the top 5% of the price range from 1990 to 2025, indicating a potential structural shortage in the coming years [1][3] - The global aluminum supply surplus is expected to narrow by 2026, leading to a projected supply deficit of approximately 1.4 million tons by 2027, driven by increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [3][6] - China, as the largest producer and consumer of aluminum, is approaching its production capacity limit of 45 million tons, which could impact global supply dynamics [3][5] Industry Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for aluminum is significantly driven by electric vehicles, which use about 150 pounds more aluminum than internal combustion engine vehicles, and by the solar power sector, where aluminum is the second-largest metal input after steel [4] - Global aluminum production is facing challenges, particularly in Europe, where smelters are closing due to the expiration of long-term cheap electricity contracts, contributing to a tightening supply situation [6] - Indonesia is emerging as a key player in the aluminum market, with potential plans for new smelting facilities that could increase its production fivefold by 2030, positioning it as the fourth-largest producer globally [7][8] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest a dual outcome for the aluminum market: either prices will rise significantly, impacting the global economy, or the supply chain will become increasingly reliant on Chinese companies operating overseas [3][9] - The most likely scenario is a moderate price increase alongside a gradual rise in overseas production from countries like Indonesia, leading to a market adjustment to higher prices and deeper reliance on Chinese supply chains [9]