邓正红能源软实力：库存超预期降叠加会谈乐观预期、美联储降息 国际油价走高

Core Insights - The article highlights that U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories fell more than expected, which, combined with upcoming U.S.-China leadership talks, has boosted oil prices [1][2][3] Inventory Data - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels, significantly surpassing the expected decline of 0.211 million barrels, prompting a reassessment of market expectations regarding oil surplus [1][3] Market Dynamics - The decline in inventory reflects potential resilience in demand, aligning with the principle that real demand drives economic growth rather than technology or capital [3] - The significant drop in inventory strengthens bullish price signals, activating market sentiment towards rising oil prices [3] U.S.-China Talks - Optimistic expectations surrounding the U.S.-China talks and the U.S.-Korea trade agreement may alleviate concerns about economic downturns due to tariffs and trade wars, which have recently suppressed commodity prices [2][4] - Improved U.S.-China trade relations could reduce global economic uncertainty, supporting stable growth in oil demand [4] Federal Reserve's Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% is expected to increase liquidity, potentially benefiting the commodity markets, including crude oil [2][4] - A weaker dollar resulting from the rate cut may make oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies, potentially stimulating demand [4] Market Outlook - Current risk appetite in the oil market has improved, with expectations for oil prices to continue fluctuating [5] - The oil price trajectory is influenced by a combination of inventory changes, geopolitical factors, and monetary policy, indicating a complex interplay of market forces [5]