鲍威尔发声力挺AI热潮：这不是互联网泡沫重演！

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the current AI investment wave is not another internet bubble, emphasizing that it is rooted in profitable companies and real economic activity rather than speculative frenzy [1][2] Group 1: AI Investment Characteristics - Powell highlighted that the surge in AI spending is not driven by monetary policy or cheap capital, but rather based on long-term judgments about significant future investments that will enhance productivity [2] - Goldman Sachs supports this view, estimating that AI could release productivity worth up to $8 trillion in present value for the U.S. economy, potentially reaching $19 trillion in optimistic scenarios [2] - Current AI investments account for less than 1% of U.S. GDP, indicating substantial growth potential compared to previous technology cycles where the share was 2%-5% [2] Group 2: Economic Impact - The investment boom in AI is already showing effects in the real economy, contributing to GDP growth through infrastructure spending related to AI [3] - JPMorgan economists predict that AI-related infrastructure spending could contribute 0.2 percentage points to U.S. GDP growth over the next year, comparable to the impact of the shale drilling boom [3] - The demand for industrial electricity has reached historical highs due to the AI surge, prompting utility companies to accelerate grid expansion [3] Group 3: Employment Challenges - Despite the positive outlook, Powell cautioned against assuming that the current investment surge will lead to a permanent productivity revolution, noting uncertainty about the long-term outcomes of these investments [4][5] - The benefits of AI-driven productivity may take years to reach a broader workforce, as the technology is capital-intensive and concentrated in a few companies [4] - Powell acknowledged that recent layoffs in major companies have cited AI as a factor, highlighting a paradox where a technology that boosts output may slow job creation, which is a core mission of the Federal Reserve [5]