国能日新(301162)：功率预测需求强劲 电力交易有望提速

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by its power forecasting products and the expanding market for renewable energy [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75 million yuan, up 41.75% [1]. - For Q3 2025, revenue was 179 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.12%, while net profit reached 29 million yuan, a significant increase of 59.13% [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 61.03%, down 6.26 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in hardware revenue share [2]. - The operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 48 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, compared to a negative 42 million yuan in the same period of 2024 [2]. Business Growth Drivers - The company is positioned to benefit from the acceleration of market reforms in renewable energy pricing, which is expected to create a second growth curve [3]. - The company has developed advanced products for power forecasting and trading strategies, enhancing its competitive edge in the expanding electricity trading market [3][4]. - The integration of AI and data analytics into core products is expected to improve decision-making capabilities in energy trading and management [4]. Future Outlook - The electricity trading business is anticipated to become a key driver of performance growth as market mechanisms evolve and regional markets become interconnected [4]. - The company aims to expand its service offerings in electricity trading, energy storage management, and virtual power plants, thereby strengthening its position in the digital energy ecosystem [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 122 million yuan, 154 million yuan, and 196 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - A target price of 75.50 yuan is set, based on a 65.0 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, reflecting the anticipated growth in distributed energy and electricity trading [5].