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若羽臣(003010):25Q3延续高增 自有品牌已成核心增长引擎

Core Insights - The company reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 2.138 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85.30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 105 million yuan, up 81.57% [1] Revenue Breakdown - The self-owned brand revenue experienced explosive growth, becoming the core growth engine, with Q3 2025 self-owned brand revenue at 451 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 344.5%, accounting for 55.1% of total revenue [2] - The brand "Zhanjia" generated 227 million yuan in revenue for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 118.9%, with cumulative revenue for the first nine months reaching 680 million yuan, up 148.6% [2] - The brand "Feicui" also saw significant growth, with Q3 revenue of 203 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 98.8%, and cumulative revenue of 362 million yuan for the first nine months [2] - The newly launched brand "Niu6 Yiyue Beid" achieved revenue of 12.126 million yuan by September, with a threefold increase in GMV in August and September [2] - The brand management business generated 204 million yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 114.1%, while the agency operation business achieved approximately 164 million yuan in revenue, showing stable development [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - Overall profitability improved, with a gross margin of 61.02% in Q3 2025, an increase of 12.42 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the higher gross margin from self-owned brand business [3] - The expense ratios for sales, management, and R&D in Q3 2025 were 54.52%, 3.37%, and 0.80%, respectively, with sales expense ratio increasing year-on-year due to revenue recognition timing issues [3] Investment Outlook - The company, as a leader in agency operations, has validated its multi-brand incubation capability, with self-owned brand business entering a harvest phase, indicating strong future growth potential [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.483 billion, 5.334 billion, and 7.476 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 97.3%, 53.1%, and 40.2%, respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 179 million, 348 million, and 520 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 69.7%, 93.9%, and 49.4% [3] - The current price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 73.4X, 37.8X, and 25.3X, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]