Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-30 07:18Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that ASMPT (00522) maintains a "Buy" rating due to strong AI demand, recovery in mainstream business and SMT, and expected acceleration in TCB shipments in Q4 2025 and 2026, despite one-time costs from restructuring [1] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to HKD 2.03 billion, HKD 13.51 billion, and HKD 19.35 billion, reflecting changes of -66%, +42%, and +41% respectively compared to previous estimates, with year-on-year changes of -41.2%, +565.2%, and +43.2% [1] - The report highlights that the company is making significant progress in TCB and HB equipment, with expectations for large-scale shipments to leading foundry customers, and the launch of HBM4 and 16-layer HBM is anticipated to further boost TCB demand, indicating a positive long-term outlook for advanced packaging business performance and valuation [1] Group 2 - The voluntary liquidation of the Shenzhen subsidiary AEC has led to a short-term loss for the company, but is expected to improve long-term profitability [2] - In Q3 2025, the company incurred restructuring and inventory write-off costs totaling HKD 3.55 billion due to the liquidation, but this is expected to enhance gross margin and save costs of HKD 1.28 billion annually post-completion [2]