Daqo New Energy(US:DQ) 智通财经网·2025-10-30 07:37Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry, particularly in the upstream sector, is experiencing a turnaround in performance in Q3 2023, primarily due to the rebound in silicon material prices after a prolonged decline [1] Financial Performance - Daqo New Energy reported Q3 2023 unaudited financial results with total revenue of approximately $245 million, representing a significant quarter-over-quarter increase of 225.27% and a year-over-year growth of 23% [1] - Following the strong financial report, Daqo New Energy's stock price surged by 14.06% on October 27, reaching a peak of $30.28, nearing its yearly high [1] Stock Performance - Daqo New Energy's stock has increased by 51.39% year-to-date, marking a potential end to four consecutive years of stock price declines [2] - The stock's upward trend began in early July 2023, after hitting a year-to-date low of $12.40 in late April [2] Industry Context - The photovoltaic industry faced significant challenges in early 2023, with major companies, including Daqo New Energy, experiencing a substantial decline in sales volume, with a 37.4% year-over-year drop in total sales of polysilicon [2] - Daqo New Energy's sales volume decreased by 52.49% year-over-year, and the average selling price of polysilicon fell to 31.20 yuan/kg, down 33.63% year-over-year, which was below the cash cost of 37.66 yuan/kg [2] Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy initiated in July 2023 has led to increased expectations for the regulation of disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, contributing to a recovery in polysilicon prices [4] - Daqo New Energy's stock price reacted positively to these developments, with significant price increases observed in early July [4] Production and Capacity - Daqo New Energy, as a leading player in the polysilicon sector, produced 19.78 million tons of polysilicon in 2023, accounting for approximately 13% of China's total polysilicon production [6] - Despite the declining prices, Daqo New Energy announced a plan to invest 15 billion yuan in a new silicon-based materials industrial park, indicating ongoing expansion efforts [6] Supply and Demand Issues - The domestic polysilicon market is facing an imbalance between production and sales, with total polysilicon production capacity reaching 3.5 million tons, while global demand is projected to be only about 1.5 million tons by 2026 [6] - The industry is expected to address the surplus capacity to stabilize prices, with Daqo New Energy taking proactive measures to reduce production in response to market conditions [7] Future Outlook - There are rumors of a potential establishment of a polysilicon storage consortium aimed at eliminating approximately 1 million tons of outdated capacity, which could positively impact market dynamics [7] - If the rumors regarding production halts in the southwestern regions of China are confirmed, it could involve around 320,000 tons of polysilicon capacity, further influencing market conditions [8]