财经观察：美联储货币政策面临多重困扰

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00% during its recent monetary policy meeting, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] - There is significant uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy due to internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, the government shutdown affecting key economic data, and ongoing pressures to balance employment and inflation risks [1][2] - The market's expectation for another rate cut in December has decreased from 90% to below 70% following the Fed's lack of clear guidance on future policy [1] Group 1 - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with differing opinions on whether to cut rates further or maintain current levels, highlighting the complexity of the decision-making process [2] - The government shutdown has halted data collection and reporting, complicating the Fed's ability to assess the true state of the economy, which Powell likened to "driving in a fog" [2] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest in nearly four years, and non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below expectations [2][3] Group 2 - Private sector data indicates a continued decline in job openings, with significant layoffs announced by major companies like Amazon and Target, suggesting a troubling trend in the labor market [3] - Inflation remains a concern, with the personal consumption expenditures price index rising 2.7% year-over-year in August, exceeding the Fed's long-term target of 2% [3] - The impact of tariffs has contributed to rising core personal consumption expenditures, potentially pushing inflation rates to 3% by December [3] Group 3 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and the White House is tense, with government officials previously pressuring the Fed for more aggressive rate cuts, which may lead to further complications in policy decisions [4] - Concerns have been raised about the potential impact of political pressures on the Fed's independence and its ability to manage inflation effectively, especially with Powell's term ending in May [5]