经济学家李迅雷：本轮白酒收缩和房地产下行强相关；白酒主力消费人群已减少2800万

Core Viewpoint - The first Chishui River Forum held in Guizhou Maotai Town focused on the theme "Heaven and Earth Cultivation," discussing the adjustment and breakthrough of the Chinese liquor industry, particularly in the context of economic challenges and demographic changes [2][5]. Industry Trends - The current contraction in the liquor industry is closely related to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market and accelerated population aging [7][9]. - The main consumer group for liquor, aged 30 to 55, has decreased by 28 million from 2020 to 2025, which may further decline due to aging demographics [5][10]. Economic Insights - Despite a GDP growth rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, the restaurant industry's consumption growth was only 0.9%, indicating a need for revitalization in liquor consumption as a complement to dining [7][8]. - The high-end liquor segment, particularly sauce-flavored liquor, has shown a strong correlation with the real estate cycle, with sales peaking in 2021 and subsequently declining [9][10]. Future Development Strategies - Three major trends for the future of the liquor industry were identified: a shift towards "drinking less but better," a transition in marketing focus from distributors to consumer experience, and profit sharing along the supply chain to support all stakeholders [10][11]. - Companies are encouraged to expand overseas sales and develop new products that are more appealing to younger consumers, addressing the need for better pricing and quality [11][12].