美联储再次降息25个基点：在迷雾中放慢脚步

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut in 2025 amid a complex economic environment characterized by slowing growth and persistent inflation [1][5]. Group 1: Employment and Economic Growth - Since September, the U.S. has seen a continuous decline in non-farm payrolls, indicating weakened hiring intentions among businesses, with the unemployment rate trending upwards despite remaining around 4% [2]. - The rate cut aims to prevent further deterioration in the employment market, reflecting the Fed's defensive stance [3]. Group 2: Inflation Dynamics - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a year-on-year increase of approximately 3.0% in September, with food and energy prices declining, while housing and service costs remain elevated [4]. - The Fed acknowledges that inflation, although easing, is still too high to support long-term easing, making the rate cut a defensive measure to create space for economic growth without abandoning anti-inflation goals [5]. Group 3: Policy Uncertainty and Data Gaps - The government shutdown has led to the suspension of key statistical data updates, increasing uncertainty in policy decisions as the Fed operates in a "data blind spot" [6]. - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the need for flexibility in policy judgments due to incomplete data, indicating a cautious approach to risk assessment [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, major stock indices initially rose but later saw limited gains, as investors interpreted the Fed's signal as a cautious reassurance rather than a strong commitment to easing [7]. - Technology stocks showed slight strength, while bank stocks faced pressure due to expectations of narrowed interest margins [8]. Group 5: Bond and Currency Markets - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.25%, suggesting skepticism about the Fed entering a continuous rate-cutting cycle, with some institutions viewing the cut as a "one-time correction" rather than a trend reversal [9]. - The dollar index initially surged but then retreated, while gold prices rose by about 1%, reflecting market divergence on future interest rate paths [10]. Group 6: Global Implications - The Fed's rate cut has led to a temporary easing of capital outflow pressures in emerging markets, with some currencies appreciating [10][12]. - However, the global economy has not entered a new easing cycle, as central banks in Europe and Japan remain cautious, and the long-term outlook for emerging markets may be affected by sustained U.S. economic weakness [11]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The Fed's future policy decisions will depend on data and risk assessments, with market opinions divided on the likelihood of another rate cut by year-end [11][13]. - The current economic situation is characterized by slowing growth, persistent inflation, and cautious policy easing, indicating a delicate balance that the Fed must navigate [14].