Gold Market - The gold market shows signs of a potential short-term rebound after a brief decline, with the overall upward trend remaining intact despite short-term disruptions from Fed Chair Powell's speech [1] - The resolution of the tariff conflict between the US and China, following a meeting between their leaders, suggests that tariff impacts on the market are no longer a concern [1] - Increased global security risks are anticipated due to Trump's announcement to resume nuclear tests, which may lead to a new arms race, thus elevating market risk aversion and driving funds into gold [1] - Technically, gold has formed a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, indicating a potential stop to the decline, with support at $3951 and resistance at $4015 [1] Oil Market - The oil market remains weak, with a decline in US crude oil inventories failing to reverse the downward trend in oil prices, reflecting low market confidence [2] - For the week ending October 24, API crude oil inventories fell by 4.02 million barrels, and EIA inventories dropped by 6.858 million barrels, significantly exceeding market expectations [2] - Despite a preliminary trade agreement between the US and China alleviating concerns over demand shrinkage, oil prices did not respond positively, indicating a focus on actual market reactions [2] - Technically, oil prices are under pressure, with resistance at $60.50 despite a small daily gain [2] US Dollar Index - The US dollar index experienced a short-term spike due to hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell but subsequently retreated, maintaining a bearish technical outlook [3] - The Fed's recent rate cut of 25 basis points was accompanied by Powell's hawkish stance, creating uncertainty about future monetary policy direction [3] - The dollar index is facing significant resistance from long-term moving averages, with a potential short-term rebound focus [4] Japanese Market - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a steady upward trend, supported by moving averages, although caution is advised regarding potential market peaks [5] - Short-term corrections are likely, with support at 51150 [5] Copper Market - The copper market has seen a slight daily gain, but prices are approaching previous highs, indicating potential resistance [6] - A short-term adjustment is expected, with support at $5.10 [6] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut, although Powell downplayed the likelihood of further cuts in December [7] - The Fed announced the end of its balance sheet reduction program effective December 1, which may lead to increased liquidity in the banking system [8] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting [8]
百利好晚盘分析：美联储鹰派降息 黄金或长期受益
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-30 08:55