今年加息没戏？植田和男鸽派论调加剧日元崩跌

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate has led to a rise in the USD/JPY exchange rate, reaching its highest level since mid-February [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The market perceives that interest rate hikes may be delayed until after January next year, reflecting a dovish tone in the comments made by the Bank of Japan's Governor [3] - A Bloomberg survey indicated that 90% of economists expected the Bank of Japan to keep its policy unchanged, with only two dissenters in the recent meeting [3] - The Bank of Japan raised its economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year from 0.6% to 0.7%, while projecting that the consumer price index (CPI) may slow below 2% next year [5] Group 2: Currency and Market Reactions - The Japanese yen has depreciated over 3% against the US dollar this month, underperforming all G-10 currencies, amid expectations of continued accommodative monetary policy from the Japanese government [4] - Traders are pricing in nearly a 50% chance of a rate hike in December and about 80% for January next year [5] - The yen is viewed as undervalued, and the risk of a rate hike remains due to persistent domestic inflation [6] Group 3: Government Fiscal Policy - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister is monitoring the impact of a weaker yen on the economy, while the Governor of the Bank of Japan has indicated a willingness to continue normalizing policy if confidence in economic outlook improves [6] - Recent comments from the Japanese Prime Minister suggest a shift towards a more responsible fiscal policy, which may provide some support for Japanese bonds [6] - Any large-scale fiscal stimulus could raise concerns about bond supply and steepen the yield curve, potentially undermining the current market sentiment [7]