Core Viewpoint - The artificial intelligence wave is rapidly reshaping the global semiconductor supply chain, with SK Hynix signaling a potential new cycle characterized by supply shortages and rising prices [1] Financial Performance - SK Hynix reported record high performance in Q3, with revenues reaching 24.45 trillion KRW, a 10% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 39% increase year-over-year [2] - Operating profit surged by 62% year-over-year to 11.38 trillion KRW, with an operating margin of 47% [2] - Net income for the quarter was 12.60 trillion KRW, reflecting an 80% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 119% increase year-over-year [2] Market Dynamics - The demand for AI applications is driving a significant increase in the storage market, leading to a rapid depletion of industry inventory and supporting ongoing price increases [6] - DDR5 memory chip inventory has dropped to approximately two weeks, indicating a tight supply situation, while NAND flash inventory has normalized to 4-5 weeks [6] - Morgan Stanley predicts high double-digit percentage growth in DRAM contract prices by Q4 2025, with NAND prices expected to rise by 10-15% [7] Strategic Outlook - Morgan Stanley has raised its DRAM price growth forecast for 2026 from 26% to 30%, aligning with previous supercycle benchmarks [2][11] - The firm has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for SK Hynix for 2025, 2026, and 2027 upwards by 5%, 14%, and 15% respectively [3][11] - The target price for SK Hynix has been increased to 630,000 KRW, reflecting a 15% upside potential based on a projected price-to-book ratio of 2.6 for 2026 [3][11] Capital Expenditure and Production Capacity - SK Hynix's capital expenditure is expected to significantly exceed previous levels, projected to rise from approximately 27 trillion KRW in 2025 to 35 trillion KRW in 2026 [10] - The proportion of wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) and infrastructure is anticipated to increase from 55% in 2025 to 60% in 2026, primarily to support the ramp-up of the M15X factory [10] - The M15X factory is set to begin operations ahead of schedule, with equipment installation already underway for HBM production in 2026 [10] Competitive Position - SK Hynix is positioned to expand its AI business, which currently accounts for 20% of revenue, to encompass 100% of its revenue through DRAM and NAND [9] - The company’s leadership in HBM and the surge in demand for general storage solutions provide substantial pricing power and opportunities for higher margins [10]
SK海力士的“售罄”意味着什么？大摩：向2017-2018“存储超级周期”靠拢，上调DRAM价格预期
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-10-30 09:15