李鑫恒:降息落地黄金为何下跌 今日行情分析

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices were driven by a combination of risk aversion and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, but a hawkish statement from Fed Chairman Powell led to a rapid decline in gold prices after an initial surge [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices surged nearly 2% to reach $4030 per ounce during the Asian and European trading sessions, driven by risk aversion and Fed rate cut expectations [1]. - Following the Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, Powell's hawkish remarks dampened bullish sentiment, causing gold prices to drop to a low of $3915 per ounce, closing around $3929, marking a daily decline of approximately 0.6% [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The upcoming meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders in South Korea is anticipated to influence gold prices; a lack of progress in trade negotiations may provide short-term support for gold, while positive developments could increase downward pressure [1]. - The attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset is closely tied to market interest rates; Powell's indication of maintaining high rates suggests increased opportunity costs for holding gold, as investors may miss out on more lucrative investments like bonds or bank deposits [1][2]. - In the short term, Powell's hawkish stance has diminished expectations for a December rate cut, leading to a stronger dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which may continue to pressure gold prices [2]. - However, in the medium to long term, factors such as global liquidity easing, persistent geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases may support a bullish trend for gold, indicating potential for further price increases [2].