预定利率研究值降幅逐季收窄，业内预计人身险定价上限中短期难现调整窗口

Core Viewpoint - The China Insurance Industry Association has lowered the research value for the maximum guaranteed interest rate for ordinary life insurance products to 1.9%, a decrease of 9 basis points from the previous quarter's 1.99% [1][2][4] Group 1: Research Value Trends - The decline in the research value has been narrowing over the past three quarters, with the initial value in January being 2.34%, followed by 2.13%, 1.99%, and now 1.9% [2][4] - The current research value is considered to be in line with expectations, as stated by analysts [2][4] Group 2: Regulatory Framework - According to the regulatory notice, if the maximum guaranteed interest rate for current ordinary life insurance products exceeds the research value by 25 basis points for two consecutive quarters, a downward adjustment must be made [2][6] - The current maximum guaranteed interest rate is 2%, which is still 15 basis points above the research value, indicating that a downward adjustment is not imminent [6] Group 3: Market Conditions and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the stability of long-term interest rates since early 2025 has contributed to the narrowing decline in the research value [4][7] - Predictions indicate that if current interest rates remain stable, the research value for the end of 2026 could be around 1.87%, which would not trigger the regulatory threshold for adjustment [7]