（财经天下）二次降息的美联储，为何让市场失望？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has executed its second interest rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4% [1] - The Fed will stop reducing its balance sheet starting December 1, which has not fully satisfied the market [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that there are still upward pressures on inflation and downward risks in the job market, leading to significant challenges [1] Group 2 - Market participants expressed disappointment over Powell's avoidance of confirming a potential rate cut in December [1] - There is a notable division among Fed committee members regarding future rate cuts, with 7 out of 19 participants in the September meeting expecting no further cuts until 2025 [1][2] - The current level of bank reserves is considered low relative to nominal GDP, suggesting that the Fed may soon need to expand its balance sheet again [2] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the likelihood of a rate cut in December hinges on the U.S. government resuming normal operations and releasing data indicating that further cuts are inadvisable [2] - It is anticipated that at least 6 votes will support another 25 basis point cut in December [2] - The pace of rate cuts is expected to accelerate in the coming months, transitioning to a more proactive monetary policy adjustment phase [2][3] Group 4 - The Fed may shift from traditional rules to a more flexible policy framework due to multiple economic uncertainties [3] - There is an expectation that the Fed will focus more on responding to political pressures and market expectations, potentially speeding up the rate cut process [3] - Projections indicate that the Fed may cut rates by a total of 75 basis points in 2025 and an additional 50 to 75 basis points in 2026, aiming for a more neutral federal funds rate [3]