突发特讯！美联储再降息，鲍威尔通告全球：政府“停摆”将影响经济活动，引发全球高度关注

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, while anticipated, reflects deeper divisions among U.S. economic policymakers and signals a shift in the global economic landscape [1][3][20] Policy Shift - The Fed's rate cut marks a transition from a previously aggressive tightening cycle, where the federal funds rate rose to a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.5%, to a more moderate stance due to mixed economic signals [3][5] - Employment remains strong, but the unemployment rate has increased from 3.4% to 3.8%, and core CPI remains stubbornly high at around 3.3%, above the 2% target [3][5] Balance Sheet Reduction Pause - The Fed announced a pause in its balance sheet reduction plan, which has seen over $1.3 trillion in securities sold since June 2022, raising concerns about liquidity in financial markets [7][9] - This decision reflects the Fed's attempt to balance inflation control with financial stability, indicating a readiness to adjust monetary policy in response to emerging risks [9][20] Internal Disagreements - The voting outcome revealed significant internal divisions within the Fed, with some members advocating for more aggressive rate cuts while others caution against excessive easing that could reignite inflation [11][13] - The political implications of these divisions raise questions about the Fed's independence and future policy directions [13] Powell's Statements - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments post-meeting suggest a cautious approach to future rate decisions, emphasizing the need to assess the impact of previous cuts before making further adjustments [14][16] - The potential for a mixed strategy of rate cuts and pauses indicates a data-dependent approach amid economic uncertainties [16] Global Impact - The Fed's policy changes are expected to have significant global repercussions, including providing relief to emerging markets, influencing global stock market sentiment, and affecting commodity prices [18][20] - The weakening dollar and falling U.S. Treasury yields may alleviate debt pressures in emerging markets, but long-term risks remain if the U.S. economy achieves a "soft landing" [18] Future Outlook - The Fed's rate cut signifies a transition from a tightening to a neutral monetary policy cycle, but challenges remain regarding the U.S. economy's ability to sustain this shift [20][22] - The potential re-evaluation of the "high interest rates + strong dollar" model by the Fed could lead to adjustments by other central banks and a reconfiguration of global capital flows [22]