美元霸权要崩？多国抛美债买黄金，中国托管接单，全球金融要变天

Core Viewpoint - The global financial landscape is shifting as many central banks are selling U.S. Treasury bonds and buying gold, indicating a potential decline in the dominance of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency [1][25]. Central Banks' Actions - Central banks have been consistently purchasing gold for 19 consecutive quarters, with an average annual purchase exceeding 1,000 tons from 2022 to 2024, which is double the average of the previous decade [4][6]. - The total global market value of gold has surpassed $27 trillion, making it the second-largest reserve asset globally, overtaking the euro [1][3]. Gold's Investment Appeal - Gold has shown a significant price increase of 57% year-to-date, with a peak price of over $4,300 per ounce, driven by central banks' aggressive buying [3][10]. - The perception of gold is evolving from a backup reserve asset to a core reserve asset, with projections indicating that by 2024, gold will constitute 20% of global official foreign exchange reserves [10][12]. China's Role - China is not only a major buyer of gold but is also attempting to change the rules of the game by offering gold reserve custody services to other countries, which traditionally relied on Western financial powers [12][14]. - China's involvement in gold custody is seen as a strategic move to provide countries with alternatives to storing their gold in the U.S. or U.K., thereby enhancing its influence in the global financial system [14][16]. Market Predictions - Major financial institutions are optimistic about gold prices, with predictions suggesting that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce by spring 2024, and Morgan Stanley has raised its 2026 price forecast from $3,313 to $4,400 per ounce [19][21]. - The sensitivity of gold stocks to gold prices is noted to be around 1.5 times, indicating that a 10% increase in gold prices could lead to a 15% or more increase in gold stocks [21]. Long-term Implications - The shift from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold as a reserve asset could fundamentally alter the global reserve system that has been centered around the dollar for over fifty years [25][23]. - The transition towards a more balanced global financial system is underway, moving from a dollar-dominated framework to a more diversified approach [25].