“反内卷”叠加油价下行 炼化龙头荣盛石化业绩拐点已现

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese refining industry is expected to enter a new development cycle driven by government policies aimed at eliminating inefficiencies and enhancing market competition, particularly through the "anti-involution" measures and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Industry Overview - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a "Stabilization Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)", targeting an annual growth of over 5% in industry value added [2] - The plan emphasizes "controlling refining, reducing oil, and increasing chemicals", with strict controls on new refining capacity and a focus on energy-saving and carbon-reduction projects [2] - By 2025, domestic crude oil processing capacity is to be limited to 1 billion tons, with current refining capacity nearing this limit [2] Market Dynamics - The overall refining capacity is currently controlled at around 950 million tons, with approximately 4.88 million tons of small capacity (below 2 million tons) still in operation, representing about 5% of total refining capacity [3] - The industry is expected to undergo a transformation towards scale and high-end production, with potential for further capacity optimization and elimination of outdated facilities [3] Company Performance - Rongsheng Petrochemical reported a revenue of 227.815 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.888 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2023, with a significant year-on-year increase of 1427.94% in net profit for Q3 [1] - The company is leading the trend of integrated refining and chemical production, with a capacity of 40 million tons per year and a focus on high-end chemical products [5] Profitability Outlook - Historical data indicates that fluctuations in crude oil prices significantly impact refining profitability, with margins improving when oil prices are between $40 and $80 per barrel [6] - As oil prices have trended downward, the cost structure for refining companies is expected to improve, enhancing profitability for integrated chemical refineries like Rongsheng [7] - Estimates suggest that for every $10 decrease in oil prices, Rongsheng's theoretical net profit could increase by over 5 billion yuan [7] Investment Potential - The current valuation of Rongsheng Petrochemical may be below the intrinsic value of its refining assets, indicating potential for long-term investment appreciation [7]