证券研究报告 大炼化周报： 地缘冲突推动油价高位震荡，涤纶长丝企业库存增加 大化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 石化化工证券分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年3月22日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】本周（3月16日-3月20日，下同）国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为1898元/吨， 环比-435元/吨（环比-19%）；国外重点大炼化项目本周价差为3125元/吨，环比+168元/吨（环比+6%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为9271/9421/10686元/吨，环比分别+493/+364/+593元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为397/231/472元/吨，环比分别+85/+0/+152元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 26.6/31.2/31.7天，环比分别+3.3/+4.0/+3.5天，长丝开工率为88.7%，环比+2.5pct。 ...

证券研究报告 大炼化周报： 地缘冲突推动油价高位震荡，涤纶长丝企业库存增加 大化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 石化化工证券分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年3月22日 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】本周（3月16日-3月20日，下同）国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为1898元/吨， 环比-435元/吨（环比-19%）；国外重点大炼化项目本周价差为3125元/吨，环比+168元/吨（环比+6%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为9271/9421/10686元/吨，环比分别+493/+364/+593元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为397/231/472元/吨，环比分别+85/+0/+152元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 26.6/31.2/31.7天，环比分别+3.3/+4.0/+3.5天，长丝开工率为88.7%，环比+2.5pct。下游方面，本周织机开工 率为52.6%，环比+1 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 石油石化行业周报 上游油气开采景气度上升，下游仍需时间消 推荐（维持） 化原料上涨 石油石化 2026 年 03 月 23 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：孙维容 邮箱：sunweirong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360526020001 证券分析师：邹骏程 邮箱：zoujuncheng@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360526030001 证券分析师：李妍 邮箱：liyan3@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360526030005 行业基本数据 -10% 15% 39% 64% 25/03 25/06 25/08 25/10 26/01 26/03 2025-03-24~2026-03-20 石油石化 沪深300 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 油价中枢上移炼能格局优化，中长期油气和石化景气持续上行。1）短期：油 价剧烈波动，产业链再平衡。油价大幅波动导致下游由补库转观望，石化产品 有价无市、成交偏弱；下游持续去库、上游被动累库，行业进入库存再平衡阶 段。2）中期：下游库存低位，涨价弹性可期。石化历经三年下行 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The current oil prices exhibit high uncertainty, primarily driven by geopolitical conflicts. The U.S. is managing market expectations by releasing strategic reserves and lifting sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil, which has pressured prices downward. However, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains critical, and prices are expected to trend upward if the blockade continues beyond two months [17][18][19] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The oil and petrochemical sector underperformed against the Shanghai Composite Index, with a decline of 4.58%. The oil and gas resource index fell by 2.86%, while the refining and chemical index dropped by 5.20% [10][11] Oil Sector - As of March 20, WTI spot price was $98.23, down $0.48, while Brent was $117.08, up $13.4. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 6.156 million barrels, with a production rate of 13.668 million barrels per day [16][15] - The geopolitical situation remains tense, with the U.S. increasing military presence in the Middle East, which may lead to further price volatility [15][17] Refining Sector - The average refining margin for major refineries was 1826.41 yuan/ton, down 109.28 yuan/ton from the previous period. Independent refineries reported a negative margin of -79.27 yuan/ton, indicating significant pressure on profitability [14][15] Polyester Sector - The average profit level for polyester POY150D was 702.17 yuan/ton, down 49.89 yuan/ton. The market is under pressure from high costs and low demand, with inventory levels rising [15] Olefins Sector - The domestic ethylene market price averaged 9957 yuan/ton, up 4.49% from the previous week. However, demand is expected to decrease as downstream facilities implement production cuts [15]

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪： [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 截至 3 月 20 日当周，国内重点大炼 化项目价差为 2727.25 元/吨，环比变化-271.32 元/吨（-9.05%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 3175.11 元/吨，环比变化+220.33 元/吨 （+7.46%）。截至 3 月 20 日当周，布伦特原油周均价为 104.61 美 元/桶，环比变化+7.65%。 ➢ 【炼油板块】周前期，伊朗袭击伊拉克领海油轮，伊朗新任最高领袖誓 言继续关闭霍尔木兹海峡，中东原油供应大量减少，美国向中东地区增 派军事力量，地缘紧张局势加剧，油价大幅攀升。周中期，IEA 称必要时 后续或继续释放更多石油，且此前已同意的石油储备开始流入市场，沙 特也加紧红海运输，缓解了部分供应担忧，油价宽幅下跌。周后期，阿 联酋富查伊拉港、伊朗能源基础设施遭袭，伊朗威胁打击中东三国的石 油设施，市场供应中断恐慌再次升温，油价继续上涨。2026 年 3 月 20 日布伦特、WTI 原油价格分别为 112.19、9 ...

地缘局势预期波动不改行业长期逻辑推进 核心观点 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 中东局势现实趋严而预期缓解：本周行情仍主要受中东局势主导。虽然霍尔木兹海 峡通行问题还未有效缓解，油价与绝大多数化工品价格持续上涨，但股票行情却出 现较大的波动。我们认为波动的主要原因是市场对于局势可能较快缓解的预期变 化。然而从目前情势看，油气原料的现实短缺问题还在不断加剧。特别是海外化工 企业受制于整体资源体量问题，不稳定性更大。我们认为短期内可能会出现越来越 多的海外化工企业调降负荷，甚至停产。对于投资来说，首先现实与预期的进一步 分化会带来短期机会。更重要的是对于战争前就处于景气提升通道的行业来说，战 争导致的供给短期缺失，实际加速了中长期逻辑的推进。因此我们仍然看好前期重 点关注的聚氨酯，PVC 和聚酯瓶片等子行业。 ⚫ 关注甜味剂行业供需边际向好变化：市场前期对三氯蔗糖景气预期较低，主要是因 为 24 下半年至 25 上半年行业进行过一轮减产协同，但 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for selected companies within the sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that escalating tensions in the Middle East have driven up oil prices, with both EIA and IEA significantly lowering their global oil supply forecasts for the year [6][7]. - EIA projects the average crude oil price for 2026 to be $79 per barrel, an increase of $21 from the previous month, while the average for 2027 is projected at $64 per barrel, up by $11 [6][7]. - Demand forecasts show IEA has reduced its 2026 oil demand growth estimate to 640,000 barrels per day, down by 210,000 barrels per day from last month, while EIA has slightly increased its forecast to 1.23 million barrels per day for 2026 [11][12]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Oil prices have risen, with Brent crude futures closing at $103.14 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 11.27%, and WTI futures at $98.71 per barrel, up 8.59% [24]. - The report notes a significant increase in drilling activity, with the number of active rigs in the U.S. rising to 553, a slight increase from the previous week but a decrease of 39 year-on-year [37]. Refining Sector - The report indicates that refining margins have improved, with the Singapore refining margin rising to $54.03 per barrel, an increase of $17.35 from the previous week [6]. - The report anticipates that refining profitability will gradually improve as economic recovery progresses [6]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have increased, with the average price in East China reaching 6,475 RMB per ton, up 19.01% week-on-week [6]. - The report suggests that the polyester industry is expected to see gradual improvement as supply and demand dynamics tighten [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [21]. - It also highlights the potential for offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering to benefit from sustained high capital expenditures in exploration and development [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, recommending specific companies for investment opportunities [3][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have led to increased oil prices and significant downward revisions in global oil supply forecasts by EIA and IEA [6][7]. - EIA projects the average crude oil price for 2026 to be $79 per barrel, up by $21 from the previous month, while the average for 2027 is projected at $64 per barrel, an increase of $11 [6][7]. - Demand forecasts show IEA has significantly reduced its 2026 oil demand growth estimate to 640,000 barrels per day, while EIA has slightly increased its forecast to 1.23 million barrels per day [11][12]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $103.14 per barrel, reflecting an increase of 11.27% week-on-week, while WTI futures rose by 8.59% to $98.71 per barrel [27]. - The report notes a rise in drilling rig counts, with the U.S. rig count increasing to 553, up by 2 from the previous week, although down by 39 year-on-year [43][46]. Refining Sector - The report indicates an improvement in refining margins, with the Singapore refining margin rising to $54.03 per barrel, an increase of $17.35 from the previous week [6]. - The report suggests that refining profitability is expected to improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current margins being at lower levels [6]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have risen, with the average price in East China reaching 6,475 yuan per ton, up by 19.01% week-on-week [6]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the polyester industry as new capacity additions taper off in the coming years [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high-quality companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [22]. - It also highlights the potential for offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering to benefit from sustained high capital expenditures in offshore exploration [22].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [133]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in pricing across various segments of the refining and chemical industry due to fluctuating oil prices. Domestic refining projects reported a price difference of 2,472 CNY/ton, up 357 CNY/ton (17%) week-on-week, while international projects saw a price difference of 2,948 CNY/ton, an increase of 1,148 CNY/ton (64%) [2]. - In the polyester sector, average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY were 8,779 CNY/ton, 9,057 CNY/ton, and 10,093 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 1,421 CNY/ton, 1,525 CNY/ton, and 1,639 CNY/ton. The average profit margins for these products also improved significantly [2]. - The report notes that the PX price averaged 1,284.7 USD/ton, up 258.7 USD/ton week-on-week, with a price difference from crude oil of 575.3 USD/ton, reflecting a 148.0 USD/ton increase [2]. Summary by Sections 2.1 Refining Index and Project Price Differences - Domestic refining projects reported a price difference of 2,472 CNY/ton, an increase of 357 CNY/ton (16.9%) week-on-week, while international projects reported a price difference of 2,948 CNY/ton, up 1,148 CNY/ton (63.8%) [2][12]. 2.2 Polyester Sector - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY were 8,779 CNY/ton, 9,057 CNY/ton, and 10,093 CNY/ton respectively, with significant week-on-week increases. The average profit margins for POY, FDY, and DTY were 311 CNY/ton, 230 CNY/ton, and 321 CNY/ton, reflecting substantial improvements [2][30][31]. 2.3 Refining Sector - Domestic gasoline, diesel, and kerosene prices increased, with gasoline averaging 184 USD/barrel and diesel at 154 USD/barrel, both showing week-on-week increases [2][69]. 2.4 Chemical Sector - The PX price averaged 1,284.7 USD/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 258.7 USD/ton. The report also highlights various chemical products and their price movements, indicating a robust performance in the chemical sector [2][112][118].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has raised concerns about the stability of raw material supplies, which has become a primary issue for the chemical industry [2][7] - The report highlights the recovery opportunities across various sub-industries within the chemical sector, particularly in MDI, PVC, refining, and agricultural chemicals [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends leading companies in the MDI sector such as Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) and in the PVC industry includes Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated), and Tianyuan Co. (002386, Not Rated) - In the refining sector, it suggests leading firms like Sinopec (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), and Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy) - For the agricultural chemical chain, it sees growth opportunities in technology-driven leaders such as Guoguang Co. (002749, Buy), and recommends composite fertilizer leaders like Xinyangfeng (000902, Buy) and Shidanli (002588, Not Rated) - The report also identifies potential in the phosphorous chemical sector driven by rapid growth in energy storage, with companies like Chuanheng Co. (002895, Not Rated) and Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) [3] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the market's focus has shifted from oil prices to the stability of raw material supplies, especially as some chemical plants have announced production cuts due to external factors [7] - It emphasizes that PVC, primarily produced through the calcium carbide method in China, benefits from stable coal supply and is expected to see a turning point in market conditions this year [7] - The agricultural sector is anticipated to experience upward demand due to rising oil prices affecting agricultural product prices and the importance of food security amid geopolitical tensions [7]