美债已成无底洞，中国随时可能打出这张牌，让特朗普不得不防

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a further interest rate cut of 25 basis points, marking the fifth cut since September 2022 [1] - As of October 2025, the total U.S. federal government debt is projected to exceed $36.8 trillion, a $1.9 trillion increase from the same period in 2024, representing 132% of GDP, a historical high [3] - The U.S. has experienced a persistent fiscal deficit, with the deficit expected to reach $1.4 trillion in fiscal year 2025, accounting for 5.2% of GDP, significantly above the international warning threshold of 3% [3] Group 2 - The structure of U.S. debt includes approximately 70% in tradable securities, amounting to $25.8 trillion, primarily held by foreign investors, domestic institutions, and the Federal Reserve [5] - In October 2025 alone, the U.S. issued $580 billion in short-term and $320 billion in long-term debt, averaging over $200 billion in weekly issuances [5] - To attract investors, the U.S. has had to continuously raise bond yields, with the current 10-year Treasury yield at 4.8%, a 1.2 percentage point increase since early 2024 [7] Group 3 - The "snowball" effect of U.S. debt is becoming evident, with over $7 trillion in Treasury securities maturing between 2025 and 2026, representing 19% of the current debt total [8] - China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries as of September 2025 stand at $870 billion, making it the second-largest foreign holder after Japan [10] - China's strategy regarding U.S. Treasuries has shifted towards "dynamic adjustment," having reduced its holdings by $120 billion since 2024 while increasing investments in gold and other currencies [14] Group 4 - The ongoing U.S.-China strategic competition has made China's Treasury holdings a significant lever in economic relations, with potential impacts on U.S. economic stability [16] - The Trump administration faces a dilemma in maintaining Treasury market stability while managing the growing debt and pressures from China [16] - The U.S. Treasury has engaged in informal discussions with the Chinese central bank to stabilize Chinese holdings of U.S. debt [16] Group 5 - The U.S. government's economic policies have led to an increase in debt, with a projected $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill and corporate tax cuts expected to add $2.3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade [19] - The U.S. plans to increase defense spending to $860 billion in fiscal year 2026, further exacerbating debt pressures [21] - Global central banks have collectively reduced their U.S. Treasury holdings by $380 billion since 2025, reflecting a trend towards "de-dollarization" [25] Group 6 - Investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries is declining, with the bid-to-cover ratio for Treasury auctions dropping from 2.5 in 2024 to 2.1 in 2025, leading to higher issuance rates [27] - The IMF has warned that failure to control U.S. debt levels could lead to global financial market turmoil, particularly affecting emerging markets [27] - China's central bank has stated its intention to flexibly adjust its foreign reserve asset structure while maintaining asset safety and value appreciation [29]