债市破局在即：央行国债买卖将恢复 机构抢券已拉开序幕

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a bullish trend following the announcement by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to resume government bond trading operations, which is seen as a pivotal moment for the market [1][4]. Market Reaction - After the PBOC's announcement on October 27, bond yields fell across the board, with institutions actively purchasing bonds, particularly from funds and brokerages, while banks and insurance companies sold [3][7]. - By October 30, the market continued to show a "bullish" trend, although the rate of yield decline had narrowed [3][7]. Policy Background - The PBOC's resumption of bond trading is part of its open market operations aimed at adjusting market liquidity and enhancing the financial function of government bonds [4][5]. - The previous suspension of these operations was due to an imbalance in bond market supply and demand and accumulated market risks [5][6]. Future Expectations - The resumption of bond trading is expected to help coordinate with fiscal policy and mitigate potential market supply shocks from increased local government bond issuance in the fourth quarter and early next year [6][12]. - Analysts anticipate that the PBOC will optimize its bond trading operations to minimize market impact, focusing on short-term bonds while maintaining a stable liquidity environment [10][12]. Market Dynamics - The current market sentiment is cautious, with some institutions adopting a wait-and-see approach due to the unpredictable nature of the market [11][12]. - The focus is shifting towards practical issues such as the timing and method of the PBOC's bond purchases, with expectations of a gradual approach rather than aggressive buying [9][10].