Gold Mantis(SZ:002081) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-30 12:37Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, attributed to slower project execution due to tight funding from downstream government investments, but maintains a positive long-term outlook due to consistent order growth since Q2 2023 [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.275 billion yuan, down 9.20% year-on-year, and a net profit of 382 million yuan, down 18.47% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 3.747 billion yuan, down 29.62% year-on-year and 20.98% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit at 23.67 million yuan, down 80.87% year-on-year and 83.54% quarter-on-quarter, falling short of expectations [1] - The gross margin for the first nine months of 2025 was 12.64%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was 9.92%, down 1.73 percentage points year-on-year and 4.27 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Cost and Expense Analysis - The company’s expense ratio increased due to a significant drop in revenue, with the nine-month expense ratio at 8.27%, up 0.62 percentage points year-on-year, and Q3 expense ratio at 9.74%, up 2.52 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The net profit margin for the first nine months of 2025 was 2.87%, down 0.33 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 net profit margin was 0.63%, down 1.69 percentage points year-on-year and 2.40 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - The company reported a negative operating cash flow of 619 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025, an improvement of 102 million yuan year-on-year, with a cash collection/payment ratio of 107.9%/103.0% [3] - As of Q3 2025, accounts receivable and contract assets were 11.047 billion yuan and 9.636 billion yuan, respectively, showing a significant reduction in receivables [3] - The company maintained a healthy balance sheet with interest-bearing liabilities of only 730 million yuan and cash reserves of 4.912 billion yuan, resulting in a debt ratio of 58.2%, down 2.15 percentage points year-on-year [3] Order Growth and Market Position - The company signed new orders worth 19.11 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with public decoration orders up 4.1% and residential orders down 18.0% [4] - The company has maintained positive order growth for ten consecutive quarters, indicating resilience in its market position [4] - As of Q3 2025, the total signed but uncompleted orders amounted to 19.3 billion yuan, providing a revenue safety cushion [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Future revenue growth forecasts have been adjusted downward due to slow project execution, with net profit estimates for 2025-2027 reduced by 16.37%, 17.38%, and 18.48% respectively [5] - The company is assigned a 2026 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22x, with a target price adjustment to 4.12 yuan, reflecting a decrease from the previous target of 4.31 yuan [5]