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东莞控股(000828):主业稳健投资收益增长明显 上调全年盈利预测

Core Viewpoint - Dongguan Holdings reported a decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, but showed an increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability despite lower sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.184 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.88% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 836 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.01% [1] - The non-recurring net profit was 833 million yuan, up 38.57% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were 0.8039 yuan, an increase of 16.69% year-on-year [1] - The weighted average return on equity was 8.31%, up 0.81 percentage points year-on-year [1] Quarterly Analysis - In Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 418 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.18% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.56% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 303 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.47% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.20% [1] - The non-recurring net profit for Q3 was 305 million yuan, up 7.51% year-on-year but down 1.45% quarter-on-quarter [1] Investment Management - The company optimized its asset structure and improved investment efficiency by increasing its stake in Dongguan Securities to 27.1% through the acquisition of 7.1% of its shares [1] - Investment income from joint ventures and associates for the first three quarters was 234 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.07% [1] - In Q3, investment income from joint ventures and associates was 123 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 147.99% [1] Cash Flow and Cost Management - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was 1.644 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 192.21% [2] - The gross profit margin was approximately 69.7%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Total expenses for the period were 78 million yuan, a decrease of 33 million yuan year-on-year [2] Shareholder Returns - The company committed to a cash dividend of no less than 0.475 yuan per share annually for the next three years (2025-2027), translating to an estimated dividend yield of about 4.0% based on the closing price of 11.99 yuan on October 29, 2025 [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 1.025 billion, 984 million, and 995 million yuan respectively [3] - Expected earnings per share for the same period are projected to be 0.99, 0.95, and 0.96 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 12.2X, 12.7X, and 12.5X [3] - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" [3]